بررسی میزان و نحوه تأثیرگذاری تسهیلات بانکی بر ادوار تجاری به تفکیک دو بخش خدمات و مسکن در اقتصاد ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری گروه علوم اقتصادی دانشکده علوم انسانی دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد میانه، میانه، ایران

2 استادیار گروه علوم اقتصادی دانشکده علوم انسانی دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد میانه، میانه، ایران

3 استادیار گروه مدیریت دانشکده علوم انسانی دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد میانه، میانه، ایران

4 استادیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم انسانی دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد مرند، مرند، ایران

10.29252/jem.2022.227883.1770

چکیده

بانک‌ها اصلی‌ترین بخش بازار پول در اقتصاد ایران را تشکیل می‌دهند. بنابراین نحوه اثرگذاری تسهیلات بانکی بر تولید در دوره‌های رکود و رونق اقتصادی می‌تواند در بکارگیری سیاست‌های پولی مؤثر باشد. در این مطالعه ضمن برآورد ادوار تجاری در دو بخش مهم مسکن و خدمات از طریق فیلتر هودریک پرسکات،  تأثیرگذاری تسهیلات بانکی بر سیکل‌های تجاری به تفکیک این دو بخش در دوره زمانی 1397-1357 با استفاده از الگوی تصحیح خطای برداری بررسی و مقایسه گردید. نتایج حاصل از ضریب تعدیل مرتبط با رابطه تعادلی برآورد شده در بخش خدمات و مسکن نشان می‌دهد سرعت تعدیل در بخش مسکن شش برابر بخش خدمات است. همچنین نتایج نشان داد علیرغم این که تسهیلات بانکی در بلندمدت باعث کاهش نوسانات ادوار تجاری در بخش مسکن می‌شود، ولی همراه با رکود و رونق‌های فراوان است. این در حالی است که در بخش خدمات نوسانات متغیر ادوار تجاری به طور کلی روند نزولی دارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the Effect of Bank Facilities on Business Cycle in Services and Housing Sectors in Iran's Economy

نویسندگان [English]

  • Freydoun Khosravi 1
  • Sima Eskandari Sabzi 2
  • Davoud Hagh khah 3
  • Rostam Gharehdaghi 4
  • Ali Salmanpour 3
1 PhD Candidate in Economics, Faculty of Human Sciences, Islamic Azad University, Miyaneh Branch, Miyaneh, Iran
2 Assistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Human Sciences, Islamic Azad University, Miyaneh Branch, Miyaneh, Iran
3 Assistant Professor of Management, Faculty of Human Sciences, Islamic Azad University, Miyaneh Branch, Miyaneh, Iran
4 Assistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Human Sciences, Islamic Azad University, Marand Branch, Marand, Iran
چکیده [English]

Banks are the main part of the money market in Iran's economy. Therefore, determining the effect of bank facilities on production during recession and boom periods can be effective in applying better monetary policies. In this study we estimate the business cycles in housing and service sectors by using the Hodrick-Prescott filter, the study also examines the effects of bank facilities on the business cycles of these sectors in Iran during the period 1978 to 2018 using the VECM method. The adjustment coefficient related to the estimated equilibrium relationship in the service and housing sectors shows that the speed of adjustment in housing is six times that of services, also the results show that bank facilities in the long run reduce the fluctuations of business cycles in the housing sector, while in the service sector, the fluctuations of business cycles generally have a downward trend.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Business Cycles
  • Bank Facilities
  • Vector Error Correction Model
  • Housing and Services Sectors

مراجع

- Alavi, A. (2009). Investigating the effectiveness of monetary and financial policies in Iran within the framework of the IS-MP-AS model, master's thesis, University of Economic Sciences, AllamehTabatabai University (In Persian).
- Al-Mawali, N., Hasim, H. M., & Al-Busaidi, K. (2016). Modelling the impact of the oil sector on the economy of sultanate of Oman. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 6(1), 120-127
- Askari, H. and Chegini, A. (2007). The effect of housing grants on the development of private sector investment in Iran (1971-2005), Economic Research Quarterly, 8(1), 1-20 (In Persian).
- Baseri, B., Kiyani, G., & Malekipour, M. (2021), The attractiveness of housing as a financial asset against inflation coverage and its effect on housing demand in Iran, Financial Economy Quarterly, 15(55), 79-105 (In Persian).
- Caraiani, P. (2010). Forecasting Romanian GDP Using a BVAR Model. Journal for Economic Forecasting, 4, 76-87.
- Department of Economic Accounts of the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran (2002). National Accounts of Iran, Tehran (In Persian).
- Deputy for the supervision of the services of the organization of inspection and supervision of the price and distribution of goods and services (2000). General principles of classification and coding of economic activities of service sector, Tehran (In Persian).
- Chari, Varadarajan V., Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan. (2007). Business Cycle Accounting. Econometrica, 75(3), 781-836.
- Chen, Z., & Wang, C. (2021). Effects of intervention policies on speculation in housing market: Evidence from China. Journal of Management Science and Engineering, 12(3), 1-10.
- Daliri, H. (2021). Factors Affecting on the Business Cycles in OPEC Countries: Evidence from the Quantile Panel Regressions Model, Economic modeling research, 12(43), 237-270 (In Persian).
- Dargahi, H. & Hadian, M. (2015). Evaluating the interaction of real and financial sectors in Iran's economy: DSGE approach, Economics and Modeling Quarterly, 7(26), 1-32 (In Persian).
- FarahaniFard,S., Adeli, O., Fathi, M.R., & Gholipour, F. (2021). Econometric Analysis of the Impact of Mortgage Bank Facility Payments on the Housing Sector's Value Added. Commercial Surveys, 19(107), 63 -76 (In Persian).
- FatthiAghababa, M., Azizi, KH., & Mahmmodzadeh, M. (2020). The Impact of Bank Facilities in Different Areas of Economy on the Growth of the Added Values in Industry, Services, Agriculture, Building Construction and Housing. Quarterly Journal of Economic Modelling, 14(2), 77 -102 (In Persian).
- Funke, M., & Paetz, M. (2013). Housing prices and the business cycle: A empirical application to Hong Kong. Journal of Housing Economics, 22(1), 62-76.
- Gelain P., Lansing, K.J. & Mendicino, C. (2013). House Prices, Credit Growth and Excess Volatility: Implications for Monetary and Macroprudential Policy. Forthcoming, International Journal of Central Banking, 219-276.
- Hale, M., Hojarkiani, K., Asgari, F. & Alipour, M. (2021). Investigating the asymmetric effects of liquidity volume changes on the added value of the service sector in Iran's economy, Financial Economy Quarterly, 15, 187-206 (In Persian).
- Huang, Y., Li, Q., HiangLiow, K. & Zhou, X. (2020). Is Housing the Business Cycle? A Multiresolution Analysis for OECD Countries. Journal of Housing Economics, 490, 101692.
- Iacoviello, M. (2015). Financial Business Cycles. Review of Economic Dynamics, 18(1), 140-163.
- Jawadi, F., Ameur, H.B., Bigou, S. (2021). Does the Real Business Cycle Help Forecast the Financial Cycle? Comput Econ (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10614-021-10193-8
- Kohlscheen, E., Mehrotra, A. & Mihaljek, D. (2020). Residential Investment and Economic Activity: Evidence from the Past Five Decades. International Journal of Central Banking, 16(6), 287-329.
- Tavakolian H. & Komijani, A. (2012). Monetary Policy under Fiscal Dominance and Implicit Inflation Target in Iran: A DSGE Approach. Economic Modeling Research, 3 (8), 87-117 (In Persian).
- Kydland, F. & Prescott, E. (1990). Business cycles: real facts and a monetary myth. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Quarterly Review, (14)2, 3-18.
- Leamer, E.E. (2015). Housing Really Is the Business Cycle: What Survives the Lessons of 2008–09? Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 47, 43-50.
- Makian, N., & DehghanHarati, M. (2022). Investigating the effects of bank exchange contracts on the added value of the service sector in Iran. Islamic Economic Studies, 14(2) (In Persian).
- Malek, H., Delangizan, S. & Almasi, M. (2019). Examining the effects of economic shocks in terms of housing financing in a DSGE model. Economic Researches and Policies, 94(28), 289-331 (In Persian).
- Maravall, A. & Del Rio, A. (2001). Time Aggregation and the Hodrick-Prescott. BANCO DE ESPAÑA / DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.0108
- Martins, V., Turrini, A., Vašíček, B. & Zamfir, M. (2021). European Commission Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, Euro Area Housing Markets: Trends, Challenges and Policy Responses, DISCUSSION PAPER 147, SEPTEMBER 2021
- Marzano, E., Piselli, P. & Rubinacci, R. (2022). The housing cycle as shaped by prices and transactions: a tentative application of the honeycomb approach for Italy (1927–2019). Journal of European Real Estate Research, February 2022
- Motafker Azad, M., MohseniZenozi, J. & Mohammad Qalipour Tape, O. (2016). Investigating the impact of monetary and financial policies on the added value of the service sector in Iran's economy. Financial Monetary Economy, 23(12), 1-18  (In Persian).
- Qadiri, H., SharifiRenani, H., & Dai Karimzadeh, S. (2020). The role of credit channel and exchange rate in the transmission of monetary policy on the housing sector in Iran: vector error correction (VEC) approach. Macroeconomics Research Letter, 15(30), 62-83 (In Persian).
- Rahmati, M., Madanizadeh, A., Jabari, M. & Karimi Rad, A. (2014). Accounting for business cycles: Iran's inflationary stagnation. Planning and Budget, 20(3), 41-65 (In Persian).
- Sabouri-Deylami, M. & Shafiee, S. (2011), the investigation of structures and influencing variables in the housing market. Journal of Economic Issues and Policies Review, 3, 41-64 (In Persian).
- Snowdon, B., & Vane, H.R. (1996). The development of modern macroeconomics: Reflections in the light of Johnson’s Analysis after Twenty-Five Years. Journal of Macroeconomics, 24, 191-221.
- Tayebnia, A. & Taghimulai, S. (2020). Business cycles in Iran's economy: Evidence of asymmetry and correlation between impulses. Economic Research and Policy Quarterly, 95(28), 109-136 (In Persian).

فایل ها

هم رسانی

ارجاع به این مقاله

آمار