بررسی میزان و نحوه تأثیرگذاری تسهیلات بانکی بر ادوار تجاری به تفکیک دو بخش خدمات و مسکن در اقتصاد ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری گروه علوم اقتصادی دانشکده علوم انسانی دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد میانه، میانه، ایران

2 استادیار گروه علوم اقتصادی دانشکده علوم انسانی دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد میانه، میانه، ایران

3 استادیار گروه مدیریت دانشکده علوم انسانی دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد میانه، میانه، ایران

4 استادیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم انسانی دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد مرند، مرند، ایران

10.29252/jem.2022.227883.1770

چکیده

بانک‌ها اصلی‌ترین بخش بازار پول در اقتصاد ایران را تشکیل می‌دهند. بنابراین نحوه اثرگذاری تسهیلات بانکی بر تولید در دوره‌های رکود و رونق اقتصادی می‌تواند در بکارگیری سیاست‌های پولی مؤثر باشد. در این مطالعه ضمن برآورد ادوار تجاری در دو بخش مهم مسکن و خدمات از طریق فیلتر هودریک پرسکات،  تأثیرگذاری تسهیلات بانکی بر سیکل‌های تجاری به تفکیک این دو بخش در دوره زمانی 1397-1357 با استفاده از الگوی تصحیح خطای برداری بررسی و مقایسه گردید. نتایج حاصل از ضریب تعدیل مرتبط با رابطه تعادلی برآورد شده در بخش خدمات و مسکن نشان می‌دهد سرعت تعدیل در بخش مسکن شش برابر بخش خدمات است. همچنین نتایج نشان داد علیرغم این که تسهیلات بانکی در بلندمدت باعث کاهش نوسانات ادوار تجاری در بخش مسکن می‌شود، ولی همراه با رکود و رونق‌های فراوان است. این در حالی است که در بخش خدمات نوسانات متغیر ادوار تجاری به طور کلی روند نزولی دارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the Effect of Bank Facilities on Business Cycle in Services and Housing Sectors in Iran's Economy

نویسندگان [English]

  • Freydoun Khosravi 1
  • Sima Eskandari Sabzi 2
  • Davoud Hagh khah 3
  • Rostam Gharehdaghi 4
  • Ali Salmanpour 3
1 PhD Candidate in Economics, Faculty of Human Sciences, Islamic Azad University, Miyaneh Branch, Miyaneh, Iran
2 Assistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Human Sciences, Islamic Azad University, Miyaneh Branch, Miyaneh, Iran
3 Assistant Professor of Management, Faculty of Human Sciences, Islamic Azad University, Miyaneh Branch, Miyaneh, Iran
4 Assistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Human Sciences, Islamic Azad University, Marand Branch, Marand, Iran
چکیده [English]

Banks are the main part of the money market in Iran's economy. Therefore, determining the effect of bank facilities on production during recession and boom periods can be effective in applying better monetary policies. In this study we estimate the business cycles in housing and service sectors by using the Hodrick-Prescott filter, the study also examines the effects of bank facilities on the business cycles of these sectors in Iran during the period 1978 to 2018 using the VECM method. The adjustment coefficient related to the estimated equilibrium relationship in the service and housing sectors shows that the speed of adjustment in housing is six times that of services, also the results show that bank facilities in the long run reduce the fluctuations of business cycles in the housing sector, while in the service sector, the fluctuations of business cycles generally have a downward trend.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Business Cycles
  • Bank Facilities
  • Vector Error Correction Model
  • Housing and Services Sectors
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