شبیه‌سازی مسیر تولید و نقطه اوج تولید گاز از میادین مستقل دریایی ایران و سناریوهای جریان درآمدی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 کارشناس ارشد اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم سیاسی دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران

2 استادیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم سیاسی دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران

10.29252/jem.2022.227800.1768

چکیده

نظریه هوبرت در سال 1956 برای نخستین بار تولید نفت ایالات متحده را بر روی منحنی زنگوله مانند نشان داد و در ادبیات اقتصاد انرژی مطرح گردید. این نظریه طول عمر، روند زمانی و نقطه اوج تولید از ذخایر هیدروکربوری  را نشان می‌دهد. در این تحقیق تولید گاز از میادین مستقل گازی دریایی که در حدود 60 درصد از کل تولید گاز طبیعی کشور را تامین می‌نمایند، شبیه‌سازی شد. برای جبران محدودیتهای نظری الگوی هوبرت در خصوص در نظر نگرفتن پویایی در مقادیر ذخایر، روند تولید و تولید انباشتی از روش شناسی پویای سیستمی استفاده شد. از الگوی برای شبیه‌سازی مقادیر تولید و اررش حال ثروت ملی گاز تولیدی از میادین مستقل دریایی استفاده شد. نتایج حاکی از آن است که در سناریوی پایه نقطه اوج تولید از میادین گازی مستقل دریایی در سال 1413 با میزان حداکثر تولید در 2263 میلیون متر مکعب در روز حداکثر پتانسیل ممکن از مخازن مستقل دریایی است و ارزش اقتصادی ثروت ملی گاز تولیدی از میادین مستقل دریایی 1354 میلیارد دلار به قیمت ثابت سال 1401 خواهد بود. نتایج نشان می‌دهد ادامه برداشت با نرخ رشد سالانه 13% (میانگین سال‌های 1390 تا 1396) در بهترین شرایط تنها تا سال 1404 میسر است. هر یک درصد افزایش در نرخ بازیافت 11 میلیارد دلار به ارزش حال اقتصادی طول عمر میدان می‌افزاید.  نشت 10 درصدی از ذخایر قابل برداشت 87 میلیارد دلار خسارت اقتصادی به ثروت ملی وارد می‌کند. 

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Simulation of the Path and Peak of Gas Production from Iran's Independent Offshore Fields and Revenue Flow Scenarios

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hanieh Mohammadali 1
  • Rasam Moshrefi 2
1 MA in Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran,
2 Assistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Hubert's theory showed US oil production on a bell-like curve in 1956 and was introduced in the energy economics literature. This theory shows the lifespan, time trend and peak production of hydrocarbon reserves. In this research, the gas production from independent offshore gas fields, which provide about 60% of the country's natural gas production, was simulated. To compensate for the theoretical limitations of Hubert's model for not considering the dynamics in the ultimate recoverable reserves, the production process and cumulative production, the System Dynamics methodology were used. The model was used to simulate the production volume ​​and present worth of the national wealth of gas produced from independent offshore fields. The simulation results indicate that in the base scenario, the peak production is in the year 1413 (Persian calendar) by 2263 million cubic meters per day of gas production, and the present value of the accumulated produced gas will be $1354 billion at a price of the year 1401. The simulations results show that extraction with an annual growth rate of 13% (average from the year 1390 to 1396) would only be possible up to the year 1404. Each one per cent increase in the recovery factor adds $11 billion to the present value of accumulated production, and a leakage of 10% of the recoverable reserves would cause an economic loss of $87 billion to the national wealth.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Dynamic Systems Methodology
  • Simulation
  • Independent Offshore Gas Fields
  • Hubert Peak Theory

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