بررسی اثرات تمرکززدایی مالی بر توزیع فرصت‌های توسعه در استان‌های ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اجتماعی دانشگاه رازی، کرمانشاه، ایران

2 استادیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اجتماعی دانشگاه رازی، کرمانشاه، ایران

3 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اجتماعی دانشگاه رازی، کرمانشاه، ایران

10.29252/jem.2023.230882.1828

چکیده

فرصت‌های توسعه منطقه‌ای یکی از مهمترین چالش‌های اقتصادی-اجتماعی به شمار می‌رود که توزیع نامناسب آن می‌تواند آثار مخربی بر حصول پایداری اقتصادی و پیشرفت یکپارچه یک کشور بگذارد. تمرکززدایی مالی از عواملی است که توزیع فرصت‌های توسعه را تحت تأثیر قرار می‌دهد. برای این منظور در پژوهش حاضر ابتدا با بهره‌گیری از روش تاپسیس دو مرحله‌ای سعی در محاسبه شاخص ترکیبی فرصت‌های توسعه در شش بخش (فرهنگی- اجتماعی، آموزشی، زیربنایی، بهداشتی- درمانی، زیست محیطی و اقتصادی) می‌شود سپس با استفاده از روش خودرگرسیون با وقفه گسترده برای داده‌های تابلوئی تأثیر کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت تمرکززدایی مالی بر توزیع فرصت‌های توسعه در استان‌های ایران طی دوره زمانی 1399-1385 مورد بررسی قرار می‌گیرد. نتایج بیانگر این است که تأثیر متغیرهای تمرکززدایی هزینه‌ای و درآمدی بر فرصت‌های توسعه در کوتاه‌مدت مثبت، اما در بلندمدت به سطوح توسعه‌یافتگی استان‌ها بستگی دارد. همچنین نتایج الگو حاکی از آن است که بین رشد اقتصادی و فرصت‌های توسعه در کوتاه‎مدت رابطه منفی و در بلندمدت رابطه مثبت برقرار است. علاوه‌براین مشخص شد متغیر تراکم نسبی جمعیت در کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت اثر منفی و معنادار بر توزیع متناسب فرصت‌ها می‌گذارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Effects of Fiscal Decentralization on the Distribution of Development Opportunities in the Iranian Provinces

نویسندگان [English]

  • Bahareh Karami 1
  • Azad Khanzadi 2
  • Ali Falahati 3
  • Mohammad Sharif Karimi 3
1 PhD Candidate in Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences, Razi University, Kermanshah, Iran
2 Assistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences, Razi University, Kermanshah, Iran
3 Associate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences, Razi University, Kermanshah, Iran
چکیده [English]

Regional equal opportunities are the most important socio-economic challenges, whose inappropriate distribution can have detrimental effects on achieving economic stability and integrated progress of a country. Fiscal decentralization is one of the factors that affect the distribution of development opportunities. For this purpose, in the current research, first, by using the two-stage TOPSIS method, an attempt is made to calculate the composite index of development opportunities in six sectors (cultural-social, educational, infrastructure, health-therapeutic, environmental, and economic), then, the short and long-term effect of fiscal decentralization on the equal distribution of development opportunities in the Iranian provinces spanning from 2006 to 2020 is investigated here by using Panel ARDL. The results imply that the impact of the variables of expenditure and revenue decentralization on the equality of development opportunities is positive in the short term, nevertheless, depending on the levels of development of the provinces, in the long term. Consequently, the more developed the provinces are and have a higher GDP per capita, the more equal the distribution of development opportunities may occur. Furthermore, the model estimation results indicate that there is a negative relationship between economic growth and equality of opportunities in the short term and a positive relationship in the long term. In addition, it was found that the variable of relative population density has a negative and significant effect on the equal distribution of opportunities in the short and long term.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Equality of opportunities
  • Fiscal Decentralization
  • Panel ARDL Model
  • Provinces of Iran

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