تحلیل سیاست نرخ ارز در اقتصاد ایران و ارائه راهکارهای اصلاح آن

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دکتری اقتصاد، اصفهان، ایران،

2 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصاد دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران

3 دکتری اقتصاد، قطب اقتصاد بین‌الملل دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصاد دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران

10.48308/jem.2024.234663.1892

چکیده

نرخ ارز حقیقی میزان رقابت‌پذیری را در عرصه بین‌الملل نشان می‌دهد. نوسان زیاد این متغیر حاکی از بی ثباتی اقتصاد است که مانع از تصمیم‌گیری و جهت‌گیری  عقلایی  فعالان اقتصادی می‌شود. بر این اساس، سیاست‌گذاران تلاش می‌کنند تا حد ممکن از نوسانات شدید این متغیر بکاهند. با وجود تحریم‌ها و آسیب‌های ناشی از آن به حوزه‌های مختلف تجارت خارجی کشور نوسان نرخ ارز حقیقی برای اقتصاد ایران نسبت به سایر اقتصادها از اهمیت به مراتب بیشتری برخوردار است و بنابراین انتخاب سیاست متناسب نقش پررنگی در ثبات اقتصادی کشور ایفا می‌کند. هر چند در برنامه‌های ششم و هفتم به ثبات بخشی نرخ ارز اشاره شده است، اما قاعده خاصی برای دستیابی به آن ذکر نشده است. لذا در این مطالعه سیاست قاعده نرخ‌بندی تورمی ارز و الگوی شامل نرخ بهره، مورد ارزیابی قرار می‌گیرد. ابتدا الگوی تعدیل شده ادوارد (1989) برای داده‌های ایران طی سال‌های 1399-1339 برآورد می‌شود. سپس به منظور ارزیابی تأثیر بروز شوک‌های تورمی و نرخ بهره بر رفتار نرخ ارز حقیقی، از تحلیل توابع واکنش ضربه‌ای نیز استفاده می‌شود. نتایج مطالعه حاکی از آن است که شوک‌های تورمی دارای آثار بلندمدت بر نرخ ارز حقیقی است و لذا بروز یک شوک برون‌زای تورمی به سرعت با عث انحراف فزاینده نرخ ارز از مقدار تعادلی آن خواهد شد.در مقابل، بر اساس تابع واکنش ضربه‌ای نرخ بهره، اثر تغییرات نرخ بهره به سرعت تعدیل شده و نرخ ارز به مقدار تعادلی آن برمی‌گردد و لذا اتخاذ سیاست قاعده‌بندی نرخ ارز بر مبنای هدف تورمی، می‌تواند باعث دستیابی به اهداف مد نظر برنامه‌های توسعه‌ای کشور گردد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Analysis of Exchange Rate Policy in the Iranian Economy and Proposing its Reform Solutions

نویسندگان [English]

  • Behbam Ebrahimi 1
  • Mohammad Vaez Barzani 2
  • Zahra Zamani 3
1 PhD in Economics, Post-doc Researcher, Isfahan, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Faculty of Administrative Sciences and Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran
3 PhD in Economics, Center of Excellence for International Economics, Faculty of Administrative Sciences and Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran
چکیده [English]

The real exchange rate reflects the level of competitiveness in the international market. High volatility of this variable indicates economic instability, which hinders rational decision-making and direction for economic actors. Therefore, policymakers strive to minimize the fluctuations of this variable as much as possible. With the sanctions and the resulting damages to various sectors of foreign trade, the fluctuation of the real exchange rate has a greater importance for the Iranian economy compared to other economies. Therefore, choosing an appropriate policy plays a significant role in the stability of the country's economy. Although the stability of the exchange rate has been mentioned in the sixth and seventh development plans, no specific rule has been mentioned to achieve it. Therefore, in this study, two policies, inflation-based exchange rate rule and the pattern including interest rate, are evaluated First, the modified Edwards model (1989) is estimated by 1960-2020 data. Then, in order to evaluate the impact of inflation shocks and interest rates on the behavior of the real exchange rate, impulse response function analysis is also used. The results indicate that inflation shocks have long-term effects on the real exchange rate, and therefore, the occurrence of an exogenous inflation shock quickly leads to a deviation of the future exchange rate from its equilibrium level. On the other hand, according to the impulse response function of the interest rate, the effects of interest rate changes are adjusted at a slower pace, and the exchange rate returns to its equilibrium level. Therefore, adopting a rule-based exchange rate policy based on inflation targeting can help achieve the desired goals of the country's development plans. 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Real Exchange Rate
  • Exchange Rate Shock
  • Sixth Development Plan
  • Seventh Development Plan

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