اثرات ناشی از تنش بین اوکراین و روسیه بر قیمت انرژی و محیط‌زیست

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت دانشگاه شهید باهنر، کرمان، ایران

2 استاد گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه شهید باهنر، کرمان، ایران

3 کارشناس ارشد اقتصاد انرژی، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه شهید باهنر، کرمان، ایران،

10.48308/jem.2024.234354.1886

چکیده

جنگ‌ بین روسیه و اوکراین و تحریم انرژی روسیه توسط کشورهای غربی آثار مختلفی بر روسیه و کشورهای جهان گذاشته است. این پژوهش به بررسی پیامدهای اقتصادی و زیست محیطی تحریم انرژی روسیه توسط کشورهای غربی پرداخته است. به همین منظور با بکارگیری یک الگوی تعادل عمومی قابل محاسبه چند منطقه‌‌ای پویا و براساس داده‌های سال پایه 2014، اثر تحریم‌های انرژی روسیه در افق زمانی 2022 تا 2030 مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. فرض براین است که کشورهای تحریم کننده انرژی روسیه، واردات انرژی از روسیه را تا سال 2030 به میزان 90 درصد کاهش دهند. نفت، گاز، زغال‌سنگ و فرآورده‌های نفتی از جمله حامل‌های انرژی تحریم شده هستند. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که در روسیه، رفاه، سطح عمومی قیمت‌ها و تولید ناخالص داخلی کاهش و انتشارکربن افزایش می‌یابد. علاوه‌براین، در کشورهای تحریم کننده روسیه (واردکننده نفت)، رفاه، تولید ناخالص داخلی و انتشار کربن کاهش می‌یابد، اما سطح عمومی قیمت‌ها روند صعودی را نشان می‌دهد. چنانچه کشورهای تحریم کننده، صادرکننده نفت باشند، تحریم روسیه منجر به افزایش رفاه آنها می‌شود. علاوه‌براین، در سایر مناطق جهان به جز کشورهای دارای درآمد پایین، رفاه افزایش می‌یابد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Effects of Tension between Ukraine and Russia on Energy Prices and the Environment

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mehdi Nejati 1
  • Seyed Abdolmajid Jalaee 2
  • Setareh Ahmadian 3
1 Associate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran
2 Professor of Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran
3 MA in Energy Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran
چکیده [English]

Considering the importance of the U-R war and its effects on the countries as well as the environment, this research simulates the war between Russia and Ukraine on the variables of GDP growth, consumer welfare index, carbon emission rate, consumer price index in different regions of the world. For this purpose, we use a computable multi-regional dynamic general equilibrium model. 2014 is considered the base year and the effects are analyzed based on the horizon of the International Energy Agency until 2030. We grouped the existing regions into 9 regions based on the criteria of the World Bank and implemented 4 scenarios accordingly. In general, our analysis showed that the reduction of Russian energy exports affects all regions of the world. Also, these shocks have the greatest impact on Russia first and then on Western countries that import energy. After Russia, carbon emissions have decreased the most in low-income countries that are importers, and in high-income countries, real GDP growth increases more steeply. The consumer welfare index in western importing countries and high-income countries has increased more than other countries.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Computable General Equilibrium Model
  • Environment
  • International Crisis
  • War

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