بررسی میزان اثرگذاری ویژگی‌های مسکن بر تمایل به فرزندآوری در خانوارهای ایرانی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری گروه اقتصاد دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران

2 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران

10.48308/jem.2024.236262.1932

چکیده

پنجره جمعیتی در ایران از سال 1385 آغاز شده است و پیش بینی می‌شود تا حدود سال 1430 ادامه پیدا کند. لذا اهمیت توجه به جوانی جمعیت و طولانی کردن این پنجره جمعیتی با به کارگیری قوانین و دستورالعمل‌های مختلف ضرورت پیدا می‌کند. در این مقاله، ارتباط بین ویژگی‌های مسکن و فرزندآوری در ایران به وسیله الگوی لاجیت ترتیبی و با استفاده از آمار هزینه و درآمد خانوار سال 1401 بررسی شده است. نتایج پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که عواملی همچون افزایش مساحت، غیر آپارتمانی بودن، کیفیت و مسکن ملکی با افزایش احتمال فرزندآوری خانوارها رابطه مثبت و معناداری دارد. این یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد که مسکن یکی از عوامل مهمی است که می‌تواند بر فرزندآوری تأثیر بگذارد. سیاستگذاران می‌توانند با تخصیص تسهیلات مناسب یا معافیت‌های مالیاتی برای ساخت و ساز مسکن‌های بزرگ‌تر و غیر آپارتمانی، روی تمایل فرزندآوری خانوارها اثر مثبتی داشته باشند. یکی دیگر از یافته‌های این پژوهش تمایل خانوارهای دارای درآمد سرانه بالاتر و تحصیلات بالاتر سرپرست خانوار به داشتن فرزند کمتر است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the Impact of Housing Characteristics on Fertility Preferences in Iranian Households

نویسندگان [English]

  • Seyyed Hamid Reza Zakeri 1
  • Abbas Arani Asari 2
  • Ehsan Farhadi 1
1 PhD Candidate in Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
2 Associate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Iran's demographic window opened in 2006 and is projected to continue until approximately 2050. Therefore, it is essential to focus on the youthfulness of the population and extend this demographic window through various policies and regulations. This article examines the relationship between housing characteristics and fertility of households in Iran using an ordered logit model and data from the Household Income and Expenditure Survey of 2022. The results indicate that factors such as increased living space, non-apartment housing, quality, and homeownership are positively and significantly associated with an increased likelihood of fertility in households. These findings suggest that housing is a crucial factor that can influence fertility. Policymakers can positively impact households' fertility preferences by creating stability in the housing market and allocating appropriate facilities or tax exemptions for constructing larger and non-apartment housing units. Another finding of this research is the tendency of households with higher per capita income and higher education levels of the head of the household to have fewer children.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Fertility Rate
  • Homeownership
  • Housing
  • Housing Characteristics
  • Ordered Logit Model

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