نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشگاه تبریز
2 دانشگاه زنجان
3 دانشگاه تهران
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Monetary policies and factors influencing liquidity creation are among the key drivers of inflation in the economy. Various elements play a significant role in the process of liquidity creation, and analyzing the impact of each can greatly aid in controlling inflation and shaping macroeconomic policies. This study examines the effects of different components of liquidity on inflation in Iran during the period 1981-2021, employing Bayesian averaging methods.
Using three Bayesian averaging techniques—BACE, BAS, and BMA—the study identifies the main factors influencing inflation. Subsequently, inflation models are estimated using JMA and MALLOWS methods. Robustness checks, conducted via machine learning techniques, confirm the findings of JMA and MALLOWS.
The results reveal that among the six key factors contributing to liquidity creation, the most significant drivers of inflation are central bank debt owed by commercial banks, the money supply, and inflation expectations. Across all methods employed, the findings indicate that the net debt of the government to the central bank has a far smaller inflationary effect compared to the aforementioned three factors. Additionally, growth in quasi-money and the central bank's foreign assets exhibit anti-inflationary effects.
کلیدواژهها [English]
)