پیشنهاد یک شاخص برای تحریم‌های اقتصادی و بررسی اثر آن بر تورم

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصاد دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران

2 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصاد دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران

10.48308/jem.2025.237359.1949

چکیده

یکی از چالش‌های اصلی که اقتصاددانان هنگام مطالعه تحریم‌های اقتصادی با آن مواجه می‌شوند، شاخص‌سازی تحریم‌هاست. بدون داشتن یک شاخص مشخص که اثرات تحریم را به وضوح نشان دهد، الگوسازی‌های اقتصادی نتایج قابل اطمینانی ارائه نمی‌دهند. این مقاله به کمی‌سازی اثرات تحریم‌ها علیه اقتصاد ایران بر شاخص تورم مصرف‌کننده در دوره زمانی 2022-1979 می‌پردازد. به این منظور با استفاده از محاسبات، یک شاخص کمی برای سنجش قدرت تحریم‌ها و مقایسه‌ی شدت آن‌ها با یکدیگر مورد استفاده قرار گرفت. سپس با بکارگیری الگوی خودرگرسیون برداری ساختاری و الگوی تصحیح خطای برداری ساختاری، اثرات تحریم‌ها بر تورم در اقتصاد ایران و میزان آن از سایر عوامل مؤثر تفکیک گردید. تلاش اصلی این مقاله پاسخ به این پرسش است که آیا تحریم‌ها بر تورم در اقتصاد ایران اثر دارند ؟ نتایج حاکی از آن است که در بلندمدت به صورت متوسط اثر تحریم‌ها 9/7 درصد در افزایش شاخص سطح عمومی قیمت مصرف‌کننده (تورم) موثر بوده است. این موضوع نشان می‌دهد سیاستگذار در هدفگذاری تورم علاوه بر متغیرهایی مانند حجم نقدینگی، نرخ بهره و نظایر آن باید به کمی‌سازی شدت تأثیرگذاری تحریم‌ها توجه ویژه نماید.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Suggestion An Index for Economic Sanctions and its Impact on Inflation

نویسندگان [English]

  • Roghayeh Nazari 1
  • Iman Bastanifar 2
  • Mohammad Vaez Barzani 2
  • Rasoul Bakhshi Dastjerdi 2
1 PhD Candidate in Economics, Faculty of Administrative Sciences and Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran
2 Associate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Administrative Sciences and Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran
چکیده [English]

One of the main challenges when studying economic sanctions is the indexation of sanctions. Without a specific index that clearly shows the effects of sanctions, economic modeling does not provide reliable results. This article quantifies the effects of sanctions against the Iranian economy on the consumer price index (inflation) over the period 1979-2022. For this purpose, a quantitative index was used to measure the strength of sanctions and compare their severity with each other using mathematical calculations. Then, by using the Structural Vector Autoregression model and Vector Error Correction model, the effects of sanctions on inflation in the Iranian economy and its amount were separated from other effective factors is measured. The main goal of this article is to answer the question “Do sanctions have an effect on inflation in the Iranian economy?” The results indicate that sanctions have contributed to an increase in the general consumer price index (inflation) of 7.9 percent. This shows that in inflation targeting, in addition to variables such as liquidity volume, interest rate, etc., the policymaker should pay special attention to the quantification of the severity of sanctions.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Indexation of Sanctions
  • Structural Vector Autoregression Model
  • Inflation

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