اثر تأمین مالی مخارج دولت در اقتصاد ایران بر متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی: رویکرد تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار گروه اقتصاد اسلامی دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری دانشگاه قم، قم، ایران

2 استادیار موسسه مطالعات و پژوهش‌های بازرگانی، تهران، ایران

3 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه مفید، قم، ایران

چکیده

هدف مقاله حاضر بررسی اثر تکانه‌های تأمین مالی مخارج دولت از سازوکار چاپ پول و انتشار اوراق دولتی بر متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی است. برای این منظور از اطلاعات دوره زمانی 1370-1402 استفاده شد. در راستای تحلیل اثر این تکانه از الگوی تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی استفاده شد. بر اساس نتایج بدست آمده مشخص گردید که اثرات تورمی تکانه وارد شده از ناحیه پایه پولی زمانی که تأمین کسری بودجه دولت از کانال انتشار اوراق دولتی بوده نسبت به روشی که از طریق چاپ پول صورت گرفته، سریع‌تر از بین رفته است. علاوه‌براین هر دو رویکرد مورد استفاده به دلیل اثرات تورمی و کاهش در قدرت خرید منجر به کاهش در مخارج مصرفی خانوارها شده است و اثرات مثبت تولیدی کمتری داشته است. بر اساس نتایج بدست آمده پیشنهاد می‌شود که سیاستگذارن به منظور تأمین مالی مخارج خود به جای انتشار پول یا اوراق به سیاست‌های سمت عرضه و تقویت تولید و درآمد در کشور روی آورده تا از طریق رشد اقتصادی درآمدهای مالیاتی نیز بهبود یابد و دارای اثرات مخرب کمتری در اقتصاد باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Effect of Financing Government Expenditure on Macroeconomic Variables: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Yazdan Gudarzi Farahani 1
  • Mohammad Hossein Sabouri Deilami 2
  • Naser Elahi 3
1 Assistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, University of Qom, Qom, Iran
2 Assistant Professor of Economics, Institute of Trade Studies and Research, Tehran, Iran
3 Associate Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, Mofid University, Qom, Iran
چکیده [English]

The aim of this paper is to examine the effect of government spending financing shocks from the mechanism of printing money and issuing government bonds on macroeconomic variables. For this purpose, data from the period 1991-2023 were used. To analyze the effect of this shock, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model was used. Based on the results, it was determined that the inflationary effects of the shock from the monetary base disappeared faster when the government budget deficit was financed through the issuance of government bonds than when it was financed through money printing. In addition, both approaches have led to a decrease in household consumption spending due to inflationary effects and a decrease in purchasing power and have had fewer positive production effects. The findings suggest that policymakers should prioritize supply-side policies—such as enhancing production and income—over monetary or bond financing. Such an approach could improve tax revenues through economic growth while minimizing the adverse macroeconomic impacts.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Money
  • Bonds
  • Government Budget Deficit
  • Financing
  • Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model

مراجع

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