ارائه رهیافتی جدید برای بررسی امکان تعاملات دو جانبه بین کشورها بر اساس قابلیت‌های مولد: مطالعه موردی ایران و چین

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

استادیار گروه تأمین مالی و اقتصاد علم، فناوری و نوآوری، موسسه تحقیقات و سیاست علمی کشور، تهران، ایران

چکیده

دهه‌های متمادی است که محققان حوزه اقتصاد توسعه بیان کرده‌اند که کشورها احتمالاً اقدام به صادرات محصولات جدیدی خواهند کرد که همسو با قابلیت‌های مولد موجود در آن کشورها یا همسایگان آن‌ها باشد. هرچند که اتفاق نظر در مورد این دیدگاه وجود دارد، اما درک درستی از رویکردی که بتواند تعادل بهینه‌ای بین توسعه قابلیت‌های مولد مرتبط و غیر مرتبط ایجاد کند، وجود ندارد. در همین راستا، این مقاله با استفاده از رویکرد پیچیدگی اقتصادی به‌عنوان رهیافتی جدید به بررسی امکان تعاملات دوجانبه اقتصادی بین دو کشور ایران و چین می‌پردازد. یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد که چین با توجه به قابلیت‌های فعلی خود توانایی سرمایه‌گذاری در بیش از ۲۸ درصد از محصولات موجود در مرز قابلیت‌های مولد ایران (۱۴ کد محصول) را دارد. ایران نیز می‌تواند در بیش از ۵۰ کد محصول با قدرت رقابت‌پذیری در اقتصاد چین سرمایه‌گذاری کند. از منظر گروه‌بندی، ایران می‌تواند در زیرمجموعه محصولات شیمیایی، فلزات و معادن شانس بیشتری جهت سرمایه‌گذاری در اقتصاد چین را کسب کند. چین نیز در زیرمجموعه محصولات ماشین‌آلات، شیمیایی و فلزات می‌تواند در اقتصاد ایران مشارکت نماید. در ادامه نیز راهکارهایی برای سیاستگذاران و تصمیم‌گیرندگان این حوزه پیشنهاد می‌شود، از جمله این که همین رهیافت را می‌توان در خصوص تعاملات بین‌المللی دو یا چندجانبه در حوزه‌های علم و یا فناوری نیز به‌کار برد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

A New Approach to Examining the Possibility of Bilateral Interactions between Countries based on Productive Capacities: A Case Study of Iran and China

نویسنده [English]

  • Behrooz Shahmoradi
Assistant Professor of Economics, Department of Science, Technology and Innovation Financing and Economics, National Research Institute for Science Policy (NRISP), Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

For decades, researchers in the field of economic development have suggested that countries are likely to export new products that are align with the existing productive capabilities frontier of those countries or their neighbors. While there is consensus on this perspective, there is a lack of a clear understanding of an approach that can create an optimal balance between the development of related and unrelated productive capabilities. In this context, the present paper attempts to examine the possibility of bilateral economic interactions between Iran and China, using the approach of economic complexity as a new methodology. The findings indicate that, given its current capabilities, China has the potential to invest in over 28% of the products at the frontier of Iran's productive capabilities (14 product codes). Iran, on the other hand, can invest in more than 50 product codes with competitive strength (RCA>1) in the Chinese economy. From a categorization perspective, Iran has a better chance of investing in China's economy within the subset of chemical products, metals, and mining. Similarly, China can engage in the Iranian economy within the subset of machinery, chemicals, and metals. The results also have recommendations for policymakers and decision-makers in this area, including the application of this approach to international interactions, whether bilateral or multilateral, in the fields of science or technology.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Economic Complexity
  • Economic Interactions
  • Productive Capacities
  • Iran and China
  • Exports

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