بررسی اثر تکانه هزینه‌های دولت بر تولید و تورم در افغانستان: رویکرد تعادل عمومی تصادفی پویا

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصادی دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران

2 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصادی دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران

چکیده

این پژوهش با هدف بررسی نوسانات سیاست مالی (تکانه هزینه‌های دولت) بر عملکرد اقتصاد افغانستان، به ویژه بر تولید و تورم با رویکرد تعادل عمومی تصادفی پویا انجام گرفته است. با استفاده از یک الگوی تعادل عمومی مبتنی بر نظریه کلان جدید کینزی، نتایج حاصل از شبیه‌سازی الگو نشان می‌دهد که افزایش ناگهانی در مخارج دولت می‌تواند به تحریک رشد اقتصادی و افزایش سطح تولید در افغانستان کمک کند. همچنین، نتایج این مطالعه حاکی از آن است که سیاست‌های مالی انبساطی می‌تواند به کاهش نرخ بیکاری و بهبود وضعیت اشتغال در کشور کمک کند. از طرفی، سیاست‌های مالی باید با توجه به محدودیت‌های بودجه‌ای و ظرفیت‌های اقتصادی کشور به گونه‌ای طراحی شوند که اثربخشی آن‌ها در بلندمدت حفظ شود. با این حال، افزایش بیش از حد مخارج دولت ممکن است در بلندمدت به افزایش نرخ تورم و تشدید کسری بودجه منجر شود. ازاین‌رو، هماهنگی سیاست‌های مالی و پولی، نظارت دقیق بر هزینه‌های عمومی و اتخاذ رویکردهای مبتنی بر شفافیت می‌تواند اثرات مثبت سیاست‌های مالی را افزایش داده و ریسک‌های احتمالی را کاهش دهد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the Effects of Government Spending Shock on Output and Inflation in Afghanistan: Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammad Sadeq Mohammadi 1
  • Mostafa Karimzadeh 2
  • Taghi Ebrahimi Salari 2
1 PhD Candidate in Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Tehran, Iran
2 Associate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

This study aims to examine the fluctuations of fiscal policy (government expenditure shocks) on Afghanistan's economic performance, particularly on output and inflation, using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium approach. Employing a general equilibrium model based on the New Keynesian macroeconomic theory. The simulation results indicate that a sudden increase in government expenditure can stimulate economic growth and enhance output levels in Afghanistan. Furthermore, the findings suggest that expansionary fiscal policies can reduce unemployment rates and improve the employment situation in the country. However, fiscal policies should be designed considering budgetary constraints and the country’s economic capacities to ensure their long-term effectiveness. Excessive government spending in the long term, however, may lead to higher inflation rates and exacerbate budget deficits. Therefore, the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies, strict monitoring of public expenditures, and adopting transparency-based approaches can amplify the positive effects of fiscal policies while mitigating potential risks.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach
  • Government Spending
  • Output
  • Inflation
  • Afghanistan

مراجع

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