تأثیر رفتار معامله‌گران ناهمگون برقیمت مسکن مبتنی بر رویکرد اقتصاد رفتاری: رهیافت DSGE

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری گروه اقتصاد دانشکدۀ اقتصاد و حسابداری واحد تهران مرکزی دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران

2 استادیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکدۀ اقتصاد و حسابداری واحد تهران مرکزی دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران

3 استادیار گروه مالی و بانکداری دانشکده مدیریت و حسابداری دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران

4 استادیار گروه مدیریت صنعتی دانشکدۀ اقتصاد و حسابداری واحد تهران مرکزی دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران

چکیده

یک بازار مسکن متعادل و توسعه‌یافته با ثبات نسبی و نوسانات معقول قیمت‌ها شناخته می‌شود. معمولاً قیمت مسکن به واسطه رفتارهای ناهمگون سرمایه‌گذاران بنیادی (مصرف‌کنندگان واقعی بخش مسکن) و سفته‌بازان بخش مسکن شکل می‌گیرد. براین اساس در این مطالعه با طراحی یک الگوی تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی به دنبال بررسی رفتار بازار مسکن در ایران مبتنی بر تئوری رفتاری معامله‌گران ناهمگون بین فعالان بازار یعنی مصرف‌کنندگان و سفته‌بازان است. بررسی‌ها نشان می‌دهد حضور سفته‌بازان منجر می‌شود نوسانات نامتوازن قیمتی (افزایش سریع و کاهش کند) بیشتر شده و تولید نیز کاهش یابد. در کنار آن، رونق معاملات املاک و مستغلات که منجر به افزایش قیمت‌ها می‌شود از طریق اثر جانشینی بین مسکن و دیگر کالاها می‌تواند منجر به اثر منفی بر تولید نهایی گردد. همچنین یافته‌های مقاله به سیاستگذاران توصیه می‌کند که در زمانی که نوسانات قیمتی در بازار ناشی از حضور قابل‌توجه سفته‌بازان است، سیاستهای مالیاتی نظیر مالیات بر ثروت می‌تواند به ایجاد ثبات و افزایش رفاه اجتماعی کمک نماید. اما این نوع مالیات‌ها عمدتاً در کوتاه‌مدت بر قیمت مسکن اثرگذار است و در بلندمدت به تنهایی قادر به تثبیت قیمت‌ها نخواهد بود. لذا تلفیق این سیاست با سایر ابزارهای مکمل، مانند سیاست‌های مالی و اعتباری، برای مدیریت پایدار بازار مسکن توصیه می‌گردد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Impact of Heterogeneous Traders' Behavior on Housing Prices Based on a Behavioral Economics Approach: the DSGE Method

نویسندگان [English]

  • Neda Alamolhoda 1
  • Marjan Damankeshideh 2
  • Meysam Amiri 3
  • AmirReza Keyghobadi 4
1 Ph.D. Candidate in Economic, Faculty of Economics and Accounting, Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
2 Assistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Accounting, Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
3 Assistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Management and Accounting, Allameh Tabataba’i University, Tehran, Iran
4 Assistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Accounting, Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

A well-functioning, mature housing market is characterized by relative stability and reasonable price fluctuations. Housing prices emerge from the behavior of heterogeneous agents- fundamental end users and speculative traders. So, we develop a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model to analyze Iran’s housing market within a behavioral framework featuring heterogeneous traders (consumers versus speculators). The results show that the presence of speculators amplifies the asymmetry of price dynamics rapid run-ups followed by sluggish declines and reduces output. Moreover, housing booms and price appreciations can adversely affect final output through a substitution effect between housing and other goods. Policy wise, when volatility is chiefly driven by intensified speculative activity, fiscal instruments such as a wealth tax can enhance stability and improve social welfare. But the impact of such taxation is predominantly short-lived and, by itself, insufficient to stabilize housing prices over the long run; thus, combining it with complementary instruments particularly fiscal and credit policies is recommended for the sustainable management of the housing market.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • The Housing Market
  • Heterogeneous Traders
  • Behavioral Economics
  • Housing Tax

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