اقتصاد و الگو سازی

اقتصاد و الگو سازی

اثر تورم بر نابرابری درآمد در اقتصاد ایران: رهیافت سری‌های زمانی ساختاری

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
میثم حداد 1
مهدی زاهد غروی 2
1 دکتری اقتصاد، دفتر حساب‌های اقتصادی مرکز آمار ایران، تهران، ایران
2 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم انسانی دانشگاه آیت‌اللّه بروجردی، بروجرد، ایران
10.48308/jem.2025.239974.1990
چکیده
نابرابری درآمد، یکی از مهم‌ترین شاخص‌های ارزیابی عملکرد بخش واقعی اقتصاد است و نرخ تورم نیز یکی از مهم‌ترین متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی است که با فعالیت‌های بخش واقعی اقتصاد در تعامل است. باتوجه به این که طی چند دهه اخیر شاخص‌ نابرابری درآمد و نرخ تورم اقتصاد ایران رضایت‌بخش نبوده است، بررسی و تحلیل اثر تورم بر نابرابری درآمد در اقتصاد ایران اهمیت زیادی دارد. این پژوهش با استفاده از رهیافت سری‌های زمانی ساختاری و مفهوم روند ضمنی، با لحاظ متغیر غیرقابل مشاهده به بررسی رابطه‌ی تورم با نابرابری درآمد در ایران طی دوره زمانی 1402-1363 پرداخته است. نتایج حاکی از آن است که طی دوره مطالعه، ضرایب متغیرهای نرخ تورم و مجذور نرخ تورم معنادار و به ترتیب مثبت و منفی و شکل تابعی رابطه نرخ تورم و نابرابری درآمد به صورت U معکوس و حد آستانه نرخ تورم 25 درصد بوده است. نابرابری درآمد با افزایش نرخ تورم تا حد 25 درصد، افزایش و بعد از گذر از این حد، کاهش یافته است. براساس نتایج این پژوهش پیشنهاد می‌شود تورم در سطوح پایین و پایدار کنترل شود. زیرا افزایش تورم، نابرابری درآمدی را افزایش می‌دهد و چنانچه تورم در اقتصاد ایران کنترل نشود، عمدتاً به نفع ثروتمندان خواهد بود.
کلیدواژه‌ها
تورم
نابرابری درآمد
سری‌های زمانی ساختاری
روند ضمنی
ایران
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

The Effect of Inflation on Income Inequality in the Iranian Economy: Structural Time Series Approach

نویسندگان English

Meisam Haddad Haddad 1
Mehdi Zahedgharavi 2
1 PhD in Economic, Economic Accounts Department in Statistics Center of Iran, Tehran, Iran
2 Associate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Humanities, Ayatollah Boroujerdi University, Boroujerd, Iran
چکیده English

Income Inequality is one of the most important indicators for evaluating the real sector’s performance, while inflation, as a key macroeconomic variable, interacts closely with real economic activities. Considering that reducing the income inequality is a primary objective of public sector economics and given that Iran’s Income Inequality and inflation rates have been unsatisfactory over the past decades, examining the effect of inflation on income inequality in Iran is of great importance. This study employs a structural time series approach and the concept of implicit trends, incorporating an unobserved variable, to analyze the relationship between inflation and income inequality in Iran over the period 1984–2023. The results indicate that, during the study period, the coefficients of the inflation rate and its square were statistically significant, with positive and negative signs, respectively, suggesting an inverted-U relationship between inflation and income inequality, with an inflation threshold of 25 percent. In other words, income inequality with increase of inflation rate up to 25%, has increased and after passing this limit, it has decreased. Based on the findings of this study, it is recommended that inflation be maintained at low and stable levels. If inflation in Iran is not effectively controlled, its consequences will primarily benefit the wealthy.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Inflation
Income Inequality
Structural Time Series
Iran
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