بررسی اثرات صادرات غیر نفتی بر کاهش شکاف درآمدی در اقتصاد ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 عضو هیئت علمی دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی

2 کارشناس ارشد علوم اقتصادی دفتر امور بین‌الملل وزارت بازرگانی

3 کارشناس ارشد علوم اقتصادی دفتر دیوان محاسبات

چکیده

در این تحقیق اثر صادرات غیر نفتی بر رشد اقتصادی و شکاف درآمدی ایران با شرکای صنعتی آن با استفاده از داده‌های سری زمانی و  پانلی آزمون می‌شود. برای این منظور، از روش حداقل مربعات معمولی و روش گشتاورهای تعمیم یافته استفاده شده است. نتایج تحقیق نشان می‌دهد، اگر چه کل صادرات واقعی و صادرات نفتی اثری مثبت بر رشد اقتصاد ایران دارند، اما صادرات غیر نفتی مانعی برای رشد اقتصادی ایران و عاملی در افزایش شکاف درآمدی است، به‌طوری‌که با ترکیب فعلی، ایران منفعتی از صادرات غیر نفتی در عرصة بین المللی نخواهد برد. سایر نتایج نشان می‌دهد که انباشت سرمایة فیزیکی و انسانی و توسعة بخش مالی موتور محرکی برای رشد اقتصاد ایران هستند و عاملی در کاهش شکاف درآمدی به‌شمار می‌آیند. در مقابل، سیاست‌های مشوق زاد و ولد و عدم تطابق بازار ارز رسمی و غیر رسمی عواملی در افزایش شکاف درآمدی محسوب می‌شوند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Contribution of Non-oil Export on Income Gap of Iran Economy

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammad Gholi Yosefi 1
  • Asghar Mobarak 2
  • Navideh Mohammadlu 3
1 Allameh Tabatabai University, Faculty Member
2 M.A. in Economic
3 M.A. in Economics
چکیده [English]

In this paper, the Non-oil export's effect on economic growth and income gap across Iran and its industrial partners is tested using time series and panel data datasets. To this end, the ordinary least square (OLS) and generalized method of moment (GMM) are applied. Results show that total export and oil export have positive effect on Iran’s economic growth, but non-oil export is an obstacle for its economic growth and is a factor that increases its income gap. With Non-oil export basket, Iranian economy will not have gain from non-oil exports in international market. Other results show that physical and human accumulation and financial development are engines for Iranian economic growth and factors that decrease its income gap and vis-à-vis population growth and nonoccurrence between official and parallel exchange market increase income gap across Iran and its industrial partners.      

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Non-oil Export
  • Economic Growth
  • income gap
  • panel data
  • GMM estimator

مراجع

امینی، علیرضا؛ حاجی محمد نشاط؛ محمدرضا اصلاحچی( 1386)، «بازنگری برآورد سری زمانی جمعیت شاغل به تفکیک بخش‌های اقتصادی ایران (1335-1385)»، مجلة برنامه و بودجه، شمارة ۱۰۲، فروردین و اردیبهشت ۱۳۸۶، ص۴۷.
Abu-Qarn, A and Abu-Bader, S. (2007), " Sources of growth revisited: evidence from selected MENA countries", World Development 35, 752–771.
Aghion, P.; Howit, P. and D. Foulkes (2005), "the Effect of Financial Development on Convergence: Theory and Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, February, 173-222.
Balaguer, J and Cantavella-Jordá, M. (2001), "Examining the export-led growth hypothesis for Spain in the last century", Applied Economics Letters 8, 681 - 685.
Ben-David, Dan, (1993), "Equalizing Exchange: Trade Liberalization and Income Convergence," Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108, 653-679.
______ (1996), "Trade and Convergence among Countries, " Journal of International Economics 40, 279-98.
Ben-David, D. and M. Loewy, (1998), "Free Trade, Growth, and Convergence," Journal of Economic Growth 3, 143-70.
______ (1998), International Trade and the Growth of Nations, World Bank, http://econ.tau.ac.il/bendavid/worldbank.
Criel, G. (1985) "the Infant Industry Argument for Protection: A Reevaluation". De Economist (Kluwer) 133 (2), 199-217.
Dawson, P. J (2005), The export-income relationship: the case of India, Progress in Development Studies 5, 1, 16-29.
Eicher, T. (1999), Trade, development and converging growth rates Dynamic gains from trade reconsidered, Journal of International Economics 48, 179-198.
Eswaran, M. and Kotwal, A; (1993), " Export led development: primary vs. industrial exports", Journal of Development Economics 41, 163-172.
Feder, G, (1983), "On exports and economic growth", Journal of Development Economics 12, 59–73.
Fosu, A.K. (1996), "Primary export and economic growth in developing countries", The World Economy, 19, 465-475.
Fosu, A.K. (1990), "Export and Economic Growth: the African Case", World Development 18, 831-835.
Fountas, S. (2000), "Some evidence on the export-led growth hypothesis for Ireland", Applied Economics Letters 7, 211 — 214.
Hall, R. and Jones, C.I. (1999), "Why do some countries produce so much more output per worker than others?", Quarterly Journal of Economics 114, 83–116.
Huang, T and Wang, M. (2007), "A Test for the Export-Led Growth Hypothesis in Possibly Integrated Vector Autoregressions", Applied Economics Letters 14, 999 – 1003.
Konya, L. (2006), "Exports and growth: granger causality analysis on OECD countries with a panel data approach", Economic Modeling 23, 978-992.
Krugman, P. (1987), "Narrow moving band, Dutch disease, competitiveness", Journal of Development Economics 27, 40-55.
Liu, X. (2009), "Trade and income convergence: sorting out the causality", The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development 18, 169 – 195.
Mamun, K. A. Al and Nath, H. K. (2005), "Export-led growth in Bangladesh: a time series analysis", Applied Economics Letters, 12, 361 – 364.
Mookerjee, R. (2006), "A Meta-Analysis of the Export Growth Hypothesis", Economics Letters 91, 395–401
Murat, M. and Pigliaru, F. (1998) "International trade and uneven growth: a model with intersectoral spillovers of knowledge". Journal of International Trade & Economic Development 7(2): 221-236.
Onafowora, O and Owoye, O, (1998), "Can Trader Liberalization Stimulate Economic Growth in Africa", World Development 26, 497-506.
Parikh, A, and Miyuki, S. (2004),"Does Trade Liberalization Accelerate Convergence in Per Capita Incomes in Developing Countries?", Journal of Asian Economics 15, 33-48.
Pereira, A.M and Xu, Z. (2000), "Export Growth and Domestic Performance", Review of International Economics 8, 60–73.
Ranjan, P. (2003), "Trade induced convergence through human capital accumulation in credit-constrained economies", Journal of Development Economics 72, 139-162.
Rassekh, F. (2002) "the role of international trade in the convergence of per capita GDP in the OECD: 1950 – 85", International Economic Journal 6(4), 1 – 16.
______ (2007), "Is international trade more beneficial to lower income economies? An empirical inquiry", Review of Development Economics 11, 159–169.
Siliverstovs, B and Herzer, D, (2006), "Export-led growth hypothesis: evidence for Chile", Applied Economics Letters 13, 319 – 324.
Slaughter, M.J. (2001), "Trade Liberalization and Per Capita Income Convergence: A Difference-in-Differences Analysis", Journal of International Economics 55, 203- 228.
Solow, R. M. (1956), "A contribution to the theory of economic growth", Quarterly Journal of Economics 70, 65-94.
Spilimbergo, A. (2000), "Growth and Trade: The North Can Lose", Journal of Economic Growth 5, 131-46.
Xu, Z and Li, H. (2008), "Political freedom, economic freedom, and income convergence: Do stages of economic development matter?", Public Choice 135: 183–205.
Zhang, j. (2006), "International trade, convergence and integration", Eighth Meeting of the European Trade Study Group, Vienna.

فایل ها

هم رسانی

ارجاع به این مقاله

آمار