برآورد کشش قیمتی عرضه مسکن جدید در ایران (مطالعه استانی)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی

2 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد دانشکده اقتصاد دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی

چکیده

 با وجود مطالعات گسترده در مورد بازار مسکن، بخش عمده‌ای از آن‌ها مربوط به سمت تقاضای مسکن بوده و مطالعات محدودی به طرف عرضه مسکن پرداخته‌اند. با این‌ وجود، شناسایی عوامل مؤثر بر عرضه و چگونگی تأثیرپذیری آن از طرف تقاضا، مخصوصاً در کوتاه‌مدت و میان‌مدت، از موضوعات کلیدی این بخش محسوب می‌شود. در این راستا در این پژوهش تلاش شده است تا با بررسی عوامل مؤثر بر عرضه مسکن جدید در ایران، کشش قیمتی عرضه مسکن با توجه به داده‌های استانی برای دوره چهارده سال (1392-1379) برآورد شود. بدین منظور با استفاده از تعادل جزئی بازار مسکن توابع عرضه و تقاضای مسکن با استفاده از روش اقتصادسنجی معادلات هم‌زمان و داده‌های تابلویی برآورد شده است. با توجه به پویا بودن معادله تقاضا از روش گشتاورهای تعمیم‌یافته برای تخمین پارامترها استفاده‌ شده است. نتایج نشان می‌دهند که کشش قیمتی عرضه مسکن در کوتاه‌مدت برابر 25/0 و در میان‌مدت برابر 5/0 است. لذا به دلیل بی‌کشش بودن عرضه مسکن شوک‌های طرف تقاضا منجر به افزایش قیمت شدید در این بخش می‌شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Estimating the Price Elasticity of New Housing Supply in Iran (Provincial study)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Habib Morovat 1
  • Ali Nassiri Aghdam 1
  • Reza Mirhashemi 2
1 Assistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba'i University
2 MA in Economics, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba'i University
چکیده [English]

Despite extensive studies on the housing market, most of these studies are related to housing demand and not on housing supply. However, identifying the factors affecting supply, especially in the short run and medium term, are key issues in this sector. In this regard, this research has been tried to estimate the price elasticity of the supply of housing according to provincial data for the period of 14 years (2000-2013) by studying the factors affecting the supply of new housing in Iran. For this purpose, using partial equilibrium of housing market, housing supply and demand functions are estimated using the simultaneous equation econometric method and panel data. Given the dynamism of the demand equation, the Generalized Moment Method (GMM) has been used to estimate the parameters. The results show that the price elasticity of the supply of housing in the short run is 0.25 and in the medium term is 0.5. Therefore, due to the lack of supply of housing, shocks on demand side will lead to a sharp increase in prices in this sector.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Price Elasticity of Housing Supply
  • Generalized Method of Moments (GMM)
  • System Panel Data

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