اثر مهاجرت نیروی کار ماهر بر متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی ایران: کاربرد الگوی تعادل عمومی محاسبه پذیر

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت دانشگاه شهید باهنر

2 کارشناس ارشد اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت دانشگاه شهیدباهنر

3 بخش علوم اقتصادی دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان

چکیده

مهاجرت بین‌المللی نیروی کار یکی از پدیده‌های مهم و اثرگذار بر اقتصاد کشورهای مختلف است. ارزیابی اثرات مهاجرت می‌تواند امری مفید در تصمیم‌گیری‌های اقتصادی باشد. در پژوهش حاضر با استفاده از یک الگوی تعادل عمومی محاسبه‌پذیر و در قالب دو سناریوی خروج ده درصدی و ورود ده درصدی نیروی کار ماهر، به این امر پرداخته شده‌است. نتایج سناریوی اول حاکی از آن‌است که خروج نیروی کار ماهر از ایران اثر منفی بر تولید و صادرات و اثر مثبت بر قیمت‌ها و واردات در اکثر بخش‌های اقتصادی و هم‌چنین در سطح کلان می‌گذارد. چنانچه خروج نیروی کار همراه با بازگشت وجوه ارسالی باشد، اثر منفی بر متغیرهای مختلف اقتصادی کمتر می‌گردد. علاوه براین وجوه ارسالی، افزایش درآمد و رفاه خانوار را به دنبال دارد. سناریوی دوم نشان می‌دهد که ورود نیروی کارماهر از کشورهای توسعه یافته به ایران، اثرات مثبت و قابل ملاحظه‌ای بر بخش‌های مختلف و بر متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی می‌گذارد. به‌طوریکه تولید و صادرات را افزایش داده و واردات کالاها و خدمات را کاهش می‌دهد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Impacts of Skilled Labor Migration on Macroeconomic Variables in Iran: Using a CGE Model

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mehdi Nejati 1
  • Shahnaz Hajighasemi 2
  • Mojtaba Bahmani 3
1 Assistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, Shahid Bahonar University
2 MA in Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, Shahid Bahonar University
3 Department of Economics, Management and Economics Faculty, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman
چکیده [English]

International labor migration is one of the most important and effective socio-economic phenomena that exists in different countries. This phenomenon can have economic impacts on the destination and sending countries. Assessment of these effects can be useful for economic decision making. So, in this paper using a regional computable general equilibrium model (base year 2011), we have addressed the impacts of international labor migration with special attention to the issue of worker’s remittance. To this purpose, we analyzed two different scenarios: 1) ten percent outflow of skilled labor from Iran and 2) ten percent inflow of skilled work force to Iran. The results of the first scenario show that labor outflow negatively impacts on production and exports and positively impacts on prices and imports at the macro and sectoral levels. The negative effects on economic variables will be reduced if the work force outflow combined with remittances. Quantitative results also indicate that remittances improve the income and welfare of households. According to second scenario, inflow of labor increases the sectoral exports and production and decreases imports and prices (macro and sectoral).

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • CGE Model
  • Skilled Labor
  • migration
  • Remittances
  • Economy of Iran

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