تحلیل اثرات رفاهی آزادسازی تجاری با رویکرد الگوی تعادل عمومی محاسبه‌پذیر چند منطقه‌ای: مورد مطالعه ایران و اتحادیه اقتصادی اوراسیا

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد دانشگاه شهید باهنر، کرمان، ایران

2 استاد گروه اقتصاد دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد دانشگاه شهید باهنر، کرمان، ایران

3 دانشجوی دکتری گروه اقتصاد دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد دانشگاه شهید باهنر، کرمان، ایران

چکیده

تحلیل اثرات رفاهی موافقت‌نامه تجاری ایران و اتحادیه اقتصادی اوراسیا می‌تواند امری مفید در تصمیم گیری‌های اقتصادی باشد، از این رو، هدف پژوهش حاضر، بررسی آثار رفاهی کاهش تعرفه‌های وارداتی بین ایران و کشورهای عضو اتحادیه اقتصادی اوراسیا است. بدین منظور، از الگوی پروژه تحلیل تجارت جهانی (GTAp )، نسخه10 پایگاه داده‌های آن و بسته نرم‌افزاری RunGTAP استفاده شده است. نتایج این پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که حذف کامل تعرفه های وارداتی بین کشور ایران و اعضای اتحادیه اوراسیا، اثرات رفاهی معناداری بر مناطق روسیه، ایران و قزاقستان ایجاد می‌نماید و رفاه اندکی عاید مناطق ارمنستان و قرقیزستان می‌شود. همچنین، تفکیک اثرات رفاهی در ایران نشان دهنده آن است که بیشترین تأثیر مثبت بر رفاه ایران، مربوط به کاهش تعرفه‌‌های وارداتی روسیه از ایران و همچنین کاهش تعرفه‌‌های وارداتی ایران از روسیه است و بیشترین تأثیر منفی بر رفاه ایران مربوط به کاهش تعرفه‌های وارداتی ایران از قزاقستان و کاهش تعرفه‌‌های وارداتی ایران از بلاروس است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Analyzing the Welfare Effects of Trade Liberalization using Multi-Regional Computable General Equilibrium Model Approach: The Case of Iran and Eurasia Economic Union

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mehdi Nejati 1
  • Mojtaba Bahmani 1
  • Sayyed Abdolmajid Jalaee Esfandabadi 2
  • Yaser Balaghi Inalo 3
1 Assistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, Shahid Bahonar University, Kerman, Iran
2 Professor of Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, Shahid Bahonar University, Kerman, Iran
3 Ph.D Candidate in Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, Shahid Bahonar University, Kerman, Iran
چکیده [English]

The analysis of the welfare effects of trade agreement of Iran and Eurasian Economic Union can be useful in economic decision making; therefore, the aim of this study is to investigate the welfare effects of reducing import tariffs between Iran and the member countries of the Eurasian Economic Union. For this purpose, Global Trade Analysis Project, version 10 of its databases and RunGTAP software package have been used. The results show that the complete elimination of import tariffs between Iran and members of the Eurasian Union will have significant welfare effects on the regions of Russia, Iran and Kazakhstan, and a small welfare on Armenia and Kyrgyzstan regions. Also, the separation of welfare effects in Iran indicates that the most positive impact on Iran's welfare is related to the reduction of Russia Tariffs for the goods imported from Iran and also the reduction of Iran’s Tariffs for the goods imported from Russia, and the most negative impact on Iran's welfare is related to the reduction of Tariffs for imported goods from Kazakhstan and the reduction of Tariffs for imported goods from Belarus.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Eurasian Economic Union
  • Global Trade Analysis Project Model
  • Iran
  • Tariff
  • Trade Liberalization

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