بررسی تأثیر تحریم‌های اقتصادی و نااطمینانی نرخ ارز بر جذب FDI در ایران: رویکرد فازی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران

2 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران

3 استاد گروه اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران

4 استادیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران

چکیده

امروزه سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی یک عامل مهم در ایجاد تحولات اقتصادی برای همه‌ی کشورها به ویژه کشور‌های در حال توسعه محسوب می‌شود. لذا با توجه به اهمیت جذب سرمایه‌های خارجی در اقتصاد ایران، مطالعه حاضر تأثیر تحریم‌های اقتصادی و نااطمینانی نرخ ارز  بر جذب FDI در ایران را با استفاده از الگوی رگرسیون فازی در طی دوره 1397-1370 مورد بررسی قرار داده است. نتایج نشان داد که تحریم‌های با شدّت زیاد که اکثرا تحریم‌های اقتصادی و همه‌جانبه بوده‌اند (مانند تحریم بانک مرکزی و تحریم فروش نفت ایران) در مقایسه با تحریم‌های با شدّت کم، به مراتب تأثیر عمیق‌تری بر جریان ورودی سرمایه به کشور داشته‌اند. همچنین نشان داده شد که اصلی‌ترین مانع جذب سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی در ایران، تحریم‌های با شدّت زیاد است که بر سایر عوامل سایه افکنده و انگیزه‌های سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی در ایران را به شدّت کاهش داده است. همچنین بر اساس دیگر یافته‌ها، نااطمینانی نرخ ارز اثری منفی بر جذب سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی دارد. این یافته مؤید این نکته است که نااطمینانی وسیع نرخ ارز در اقتصاد ایران، محیط نااطمینانی را برای تصمیم‌گیری‌های سرمایه‌گذاران ایجاد کرده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the Impact of Economic Sanctions and Exchange Rate Uncertainty on FDI in Iran: A Fuzzy Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mostafa Shokri 1
  • Mohamad Mehdi Barghi, 2
  • Mohamad Ali Motafaker Azad 3
  • Mohamad Reza Salmani Bishak 4
1 Ph.D Candidate in Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran
2 Associate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran
3 Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran
4 Assistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran
چکیده [English]

Today, foreign direct investment is an important factor in creating economic changes for all countries and especially developing countries. Therefore, considering the importance of foreign direct investment in the Iranian economy, the present study has examined the effect of economic sanctions and exchange rate uncertainty on FDI in Iran using fuzzy regression model for the period 1990-2018. The results show that high-intensity sanctions, which were mostly economic and comprehensive sanctions (such as the Central Bank and Iran oil sales sanctions), had a much deeper impact on capital inflows than low-intensity sanctions. It also shows that the main obstacle to attracting foreign direct investment in Iran is the severe sanctions, which, overshadow other factors and have greatly reduced the incentives for foreign direct investment in Iran. Also, according to other findings, exchange rate uncertainty has a negative effect on attracting foreign direct investment in Iran. This finding confirms that the exchange rate uncertainty in the Iranian economy has created an environment of uncertainty for investors to make decisions.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Foreign Direct Investment
  • Sanctions
  • Exchange Rate Uncertainty
  • Fuzzy Regression

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