بازبینی فرضیه نفرین منابع با استفاده از شبیه‌سازی پویا

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

استادیار پژوهشی کالج علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی دانشگاه ایالتی نیومکزیکو، لاس کروسز، نیومکزیکو، ایالات متحده آمریکا

چکیده

ارتباط منفی میان رشد اقتصادی و ثروت منابع طبیعی در ادبیات توسعه اقتصادی به فرضیه «نفرین منابع» معروف شده است. تا کنون مطالعات اقتصادسنجی بسیاری این فرضیه را آزموده‌اند اما نتایج قاطعی مبنی بر رد یا قبول آن به دست نیامده است. دلیل اصلی این امر پیچیدگی‌های پویای مساله و عدم استفاده از ابزارهای تحلیلی مناسب است. این مقاله با ارایه یک الگوی پویاشناسی سیستمی نظری به این پرسش اساسی پرداخته که آیا ثروت منابع «نفرین» است یا «موهبت». نتایج شبیه‌سازی‌های انجام شده نشان می‌دهد که احتمال این که ثروت منابع به رشد اقتصادی پایین و توسعه نیافتگی بیانجامد بسیار ناچیز است. این احتمال اما در کوتاه‌مدت قوی‌تر است تا در بلندمدت. ضعیف‌تر شدن نهادهای اجتماعی و سیاسی می‌تواند اثرات منفی ثروت منابع را افزایش دهد. نتایج همچنین نشان می‌دهد که درآمد حاصل از صادرات منابع مانند کالاهای معمولی یا درآمد شخصی از قانون نزولی بودن مطلوبیت نهایی پیروی می‌کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Revisiting the Natural Resource Curse Hypothesis Using Dynamic Simulation

نویسنده [English]

  • Saeed Pourmasoumi Langarudi
Research Assistant Professor and Graduate Faculty, Faculty of Agricultural, Consumer, and Environmental Sciences, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, New Mexico, USA
چکیده [English]

The negative correlation between economic growth and the natural resources endowment is called the "curse of resources" or "paradox of plenty" in the development economics literature. So far, many econometric studies have tested this hypothesis, but without any decisive conclusion. The main reason for this is due to the dynamic complexity of the problem. This paper presents a theoretical system dynamics model to address the fundamental question of whether natural resources endowment is a "curse" or "blessings". The model's simulation results reveal that the probability of natural resource wealth hindering economic growth, thus undermining socioeconomic development, is negligible. This probability is stronger in the short term rather than in the long run. Further, weak social and political institutions can increase the adverse effects of natural resource wealth. It is also shown that, similar to ordinary goods or personal income, revenues from resource exports follow the law of diminishing marginal utility.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Natural Resource Curse
  • Development
  • System Dynamics Simulation
  • Social Welfare
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