تجزیه شدت انرژی در سطح بخش‌های اقتصادی ایران با تأکید بر دو اثر مقیاس و الگوی مصرف

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 کارشناس ارشد توسعه اقتصادی و برنامه‌ریزی دانشکده اقتصاد دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران

2 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران

3 استاد گروه اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران

چکیده

نقش و اهمیت انرژی در رشد و توسعه اقتصادی را نمی‌توان نادیده گرفت. همین موضوع سبب می‌شود تا میزان کارایی و بهره‌وری انرژی مصرفی با استفاده از شاخص شدت انرژی مورد بحث و بررسی قرار گیرد. شاخص شدت انرژی در ایران در مقایسه با سایر کشورها بسیار بالاتر است و اعمال سیاست‌های قیمتی مانند اجرای هدفمندی یارانه حامل‌های انرژی نیز تاکنون تأثیری بر روند کاهشی این شاخص نداشته است. اهمیت سیاست‌های غیر قیمتی در روند کاهش شدت انرژی و همچنین مشکلات اندازه‌گیری که در شاخص شدت انرژی وجود دارد سبب شده تا تجزیه شدت انرژی به‌عنوان یک راهکار در شناسایی عوامل مؤثر بر کاهش مصرف انرژی و بهبود نارسایی این شاخص ارائه گردد. به همین منظور در این مطالعه با استفاده از رویکرد داده- ستانده مبتنی بر تحلیل تجزیه ساختاری، شاخص شدت انرژی برای سال‌های 1390-1380 به قیمت ثابت سال 1390 به پنج مؤلفه شدت انرژی، اثر تکنولوژی، اثر ساختار تقاضا، اثر الگوی مصرف و اثر مقیاس تجزیه شده است. نتایج تجزیه شدت انرژی در این مطالعه حاکی از آن است که عامل اصلی افزایش شدت انرژی اثر مقیاس است و کمترین میزان اثرگذاری برشدت انرژی مربوط به اثر الگوی مصرف است. همچنین نتایج نشان می‌دهد که به‌طورکلی 13 بخش از 24 بخش اقتصادی بررسی شده افزایش شدت انرژی را تجربه کرده‌اند و از میان این 13 بخش، 9 بخش آن به زیر بخش‌های صنعت تعلق دارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Decomposition of Energy Intensity in Iranian Economic Sectors with Emphasis on Scale Effect and Consumption Pattern

نویسندگان [English]

  • Zeynab Bisadi 1
  • Ali Faridzad 2
  • Ali Asghar Banouei 3
1 MA in Economic Development and Planning, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran
2 Associate Professor of Energy Economics, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran
3 Professor of the Faculty of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran. Iran
چکیده [English]

Energy has a crucial role in the economic growth and development. Meanwhile, the energy intensity index is the main index for measurement of the efficiency and productivity of energy consumption. Energy intensity index in Iran is higher than other countries and reducing the energy subsidies has not led to declining the rate of energy intensity. The importance of non-price energy policies in the process of reducing energy intensity has led to the analysis of energy intensity decomposition as a solution to identify the factors affecting the reduction of energy consumption. In this study, the energy intensity index for the period of 2001-2011 is decomposed using structural decomposition analysis into five components as energy intensity effect, technology effect, demand structure effect, consumption pattern effect and scale effect. The results show that the main effect of increasing the energy intensity is the scale effect and the lowest one is the consumption pattern effect. Furthermore, industrial sectors reveal a higher energy intensity effect.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Consumption Pattern
  • Energy Intensity
  • Scale Effect
  • Energy Structural Decomposition
  • Structure Demand

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