باز بودن تجاری و نرخ تورم: مطالعه کشورهای منتخب با استفاده از رگرسیون‌های داده‌های تابلویی چندکی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

استادیار اقتصاد گروه مدیریت و اقتصاد دانشکده علوم انسانی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه گلستان، گرگان، ایران

چکیده

شناسایی علل تورم و متغیرهای مؤثر بر آن همواره یکی از مهم‌ترین سؤالات و چالش‌های اقتصاد کلان بوده است. توسعه تجارت جهانی سبب شد تا شاخص‌های اقتصاد بین‌الملل نیز وارد الگوسازی‌های تورم شوند. یکی از متغیرهایی که براین اساس می‌تواند بر تورم مؤثر باشد، درجه باز بودن تجاری کشورها است. مبانی نظری پیش بینی می کند که بازتر شدن تجارت سبب کاهش تورم شود. مقدار تورم، تاثیر بسزایی در نوع اثرگذاری باز بودن تجاری بر تورم دارد. بنابراین باید در روش آزمون فرضیه این ارتباط در نظر گرفته شود. ازاین‌رو در مطالعه حاضر با استفاده از رگرسیون‌ داده های تابلویی چندکی فرضیه فوق در 4 گروه از کشورها 1- کشورهای اروپایی (7 کشور) 2- کشورهای جنوب شرق آسیا و اقیانوسیه (10 کشور) 3- کشورهای خاورمیانه و شمال افریقا (9 کشور) 4- کشورهای امریکای جنوبی و مرکزی (18 کشور)، در دوره 2019-1980 مورد آزمون قرار گرفت. نتایج مطالعه نشان داد که به‌طورکلی در اغلب موارد با بازتر شدن تجارت نرخ تورم کاهش می‌یابد، اما این اثر ارتباط تنگاتنگی با اندازه تورم و ساختار گروه‌های مورد بررسی دارد، به‌گونه‌ای که بازتر شدن تجاری در کشورهای جنوب شرق آسیا و اقیانوسیه کمترین و در کشورهای خاورمیانه بالاترین تأثیر را بر تورم داشته است. علاوه براین، نتایج فوق با تغییر شاخص باز بودن تجاری تغییر می کند، به گونه ای که افزایش صادرات سبب کاهش اثر منفی واردات بر تورم خواهد شد.   

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Openness and Inflation Rate: The Study of Selected Countries using Panel Quantile Regressions

نویسنده [English]

  • Hassan Daliri
Assistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Golestan, Gorgan, Iran
چکیده [English]

Identifying the causes of inflation has always been one of the most important questions in macroeconomics. Developing world trade has led the international economics indicators to enter into inflation modeling. Accordingly, one of the variables that can affect inflation is the degree of openness. Theoretical foundations expect that openness of country to reduce the inflation rate. The amount of inflation has a significant effect on the type of impact that openness has on the inflation rate. Therefore, this study tests the above hypothesis in 4 groups of countries by using Panel Quantile Regressions method for the period 2019-1980: 1- Europe (7 countries) 2- East Asia and Pacific (10 countries) 3- Middle East and North Africa (9 countries) 4- Latin America and Caribbean (18 countries). The results of the study show that the inflation rate often decreases with openness, but this effect was closely explained to the size of inflation and the structure of the country's groups. Trade openness has had the least impact on inflation in East Asia and the Pacific and the largest impact on inflation in the Middle East and North Africa. In addition, the above results change with the change in the trade openness index, so the increasing exports will reduce the negative effect of imports on inflation.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Trade Openness
  • Panel Quantile Regression
  • Inflation

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