ارزیابی تاثیرگذاری سیاست‌های مالی و پولی بر طول دوره بیکاری در کشورهای صنعتی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر، ایران

2 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر، ایران

3 استاد گروه آمار دانشکده علوم ریاضی دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران

چکیده

این تحقیق به بررسی تاثیر سیاست‌های پولی و مالی بر طول دوره بیکاری با استفاده از روش بیزی چارکی در کشورهای صنعتی می‌پردازد.  علاوه بر این از روش داده­های پانلی بیزی با ضرایب ناهمگن در بین مقاطع نیز بکار گرفته شده است. با استفاده از داده های دو دهه اخیر چهار کشور صنعتی شامل امریکا، کانادا، فرانسه و استرالیا، شواهدی بدست می‌آید که حاکی از تاثیرگذاری ناهمگن سیاست‌های پولی و مالی بر بخش‌های مختلف توزیع طول دوره بیکاری است. برآوردهای الگو نشان می دهد که مازاد بودجه دولت دارای همبستگی مثبت در تمامی چارک‌های طول دوره بیکاری می باشد. بعلاوه نرخ بهره اسمی با بیکاری‌های کوتاه‌مدت رابطه معکوس دارد در حالیکه این همبستگی برای چارک‌های بالا مثبت است. نتایج حاصل از روش داده­های پانلی بیزی با ضرایب ناهمگن حاکی از آن است که  سیاست­های پولی و مالی در امریکا از اثر بخشی بیشتری نسبت به سایر کشورهای صنعتی برخوردار است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluating the Effects of Fiscal and Monetary Policies on the Unemployment Duration in Industrial Countries

نویسندگان [English]

  • Akbar Zamanzadeh 1
  • Mohammad Ali Ehsani 2
  • Mojtaba Ganjali 3
1 Ph.D. Candidate in Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran
2 Associate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran
3 Professor of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematical Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

We investigated the effects of fiscal and monetary policies on the conditional distribution of unemployment duration in industrial countries to understand how job search time reacts to macroeconomic policies. We use data from four advanced countries, including the United States, Canada, France, and Australia, over the last two decades and apply the Bayesian quantile method to do the empirical analysis. We also employed the Bayesian panel data model with heterogeneous slopes over cross-sections. The evidence shows that monetary and fiscal policies heterogeneously affect different parts of the distribution of unemployment duration. Also, estimates show that government budget surplus is positively correlated with all quantiles of unemployment duration. In addition, nominal interest rate is negatively associated with the lower parts of the unemployment duration distribution, while this correlation is positive for high quantiles. The estimates of the heterogeneous slopes model reveal that fiscal and monetary policies are more effective in the US compared to other countries.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Fiscal and Monetary Policies
  • Unemployment Duration
  • Bayesian Quantile Method

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