انتخاب شرکای تجاری مناسب برای اقتصاد ایران در واردات ماشین‌آلات و ابزار حمل و نقل: رویکرد نظریه شبکه

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دکتری اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران

2 دانشیار بخش اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران

چکیده

با توجه به اهمیت نقش تجارت در برقراری ارتباط بین کشورها و انتشار پدیده‌های مختلف از جمله نوسانات و آشفتگی‌ها بین کشورها و همچنین با توجه به اهمیت این موضوع برای اقتصاد ایران، در این مطالعه به انتخاب شرکای تجاری مناسب برای اقتصاد ایران در واردات ماشین‌آلات و ابزار حمل و نقل با استفاده از رهیافت نظریه شبکه پرداخته شده‌است. در این راستا، این مطالعه با در نظر گرفتن شاخص‌های ساختاری شبکه و ساخت شاخصی ترکیبی از آن‌ها، به معرفی شرکای تجاری مناسب برای اقتصاد ایران پرداخته‌است. شرکای پیشنهادی با دو هدف معرفی شده‌اند: شرکایی که منجر به بهبود موقعیت اقتصادی-ساختاری ایران در شبکه تجارت بین‌الملل می‌شوند و دیگری شرکایی که موقعیت اقتصادی-ساختاری ایران در شبکه تجارت بین‌الملل را حفظ می‌کنند. نتایج حاصل از تحقیق مبین آن است که نیمی از عمده شرکای تجاری کنونی ایران در زمره شرکای تجاری برتر براساس شاخص ترکیبی بوده‌است. همچنین، براساس نتایج بدست آمده پیشنهاد می‌شود که ایران حجم واردات خود را از کشورهایی همچون چین، جمهوری کره، آلمان، فرانسه، ژاپن و یا کشورهای مشابه آن‌ها از نظر معیار ساختار شبکه‌ای افزایش دهد تا بتواند موقعیت ساختاری خود را در شبکه تجارت بین‌الملل بهبود دهد. علاوه‌براین، کشورهای مشابه شرکای تجاری کنونی ایران از نظر معیار ساختار شبکه‌ای از جمله امارات متحده عربی، روسیه، ایتالیا، ترکیه و هند معرفی شدند، بگونه‌ای که تقویت و ایجاد رابطه تجاری ایران با این شرکا می‌تواند در صورت تغییر رابطه تجاری شرکای کنونی، موقعیت ساختاری تجارت کشور را با تغییر چندانی روبرو نکند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Appropriate Trading Partners for Iran in Importing Machinery and Transport Equipment: A Network Theory Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Najmeh Sajedianfard 1
  • Ebrahim Hadian 2
1 PhD in Economics, Faculty of Economics, Management and Social Sciences, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran,
2 Associate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Management and Social Sciences, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran
چکیده [English]

Trade is crucial to international interaction, and spreading fluctuations among countries. Regarding the importance of this issue for Iran, appropriate trading partners in machinery and transport equipment in import sector are examined using network theory. Therefore, by constructing a composite index based on the structural network measures, potential trading partners for Iran are introduced. The potential trading partners' characteristics are twofold. First, the proposed trading partners can improve Iran's structural position in the international trade network. Second, the potential substitutes for current trading partners are beneficial in case current trading partners alleviate or stop their trade relations with Iran. Therefore, substituting or strengthening trade links with this group of potential trading partners can lead to an insignificant change in Iran's structural position in the international trade network. Results show that half of current major trading partners of Iran are among powerful trading partners in the international trade network with high structural characteristics. Also, potential trading partners and their substitutes are introduced using the composite index. Results imply that strengthening trade links with China, Republic of Korea, Germany, France, and Japan can enhance Iran's structural position in the trade network. Moreover, forming and consolidation of the trade linkages with the potential alternatives for UAE, Russia, Italy, Turkey, and India could lead to preservation of Iran's structural status throughout the international trade network. Trading with other potential substitutes could maintain Iran's structural position in trade networks which is more pronounced in case of any disruptions.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Trade Partner
  • Import of Machinery
  • Network Theory
  • Principal Component Analysis

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