بررسی تأثیر موافقت نامه تجارت ترجیحی ایران و ترکیه بر سرمایه‌‌گذاری در ایران: رهیافت GTAP پویا

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد بین‌الملل گروه اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز ایران

2 استادیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز ایران

3 استادیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد دانشگاه باهنر، کرمان، ایران

چکیده

موافقت‌نامه ترجیحی به عنوان ملایم‌ترین هم‌پیوندی اقتصادی می‌تواند نقش اساسی در خلق تجارت و افزایش رفاه کشورهای عضو داشته باشد. انعقاد موافقت‌نامه ترجیحی با شرکای عمده تجاری منجر به حفظ و تعمیق تجارت فعلی و توسعه و گسترش تجارت می‌گردد. همچنین تصمیم به انجام سرمایه‌گذاری یکی از تصمیمات اساسی در حوزه اقتصاد و کسب وکار است. ترکیه یکی از شرکای مهم تجاری ایران است. این امر هم در جهت جذب سرمایه‌گذار خارجی از ترکیه به ایران و همین‌طور پایین آمدن هزینه‎‌ نهاده‌های وارداتی سرمایه‌گذاران داخلی، می‌تواند منجر به افزایش سرمایه‌گذاری در ایران شود. پژوهش حاضر در نظر دارد اثرات تجاری موافقت‌نامه اقتصادی بین ایران و ترکیه که یکی از شرکای مهم تجاری ایران است را بر میزان سرمایه‌گذاری بخش‌های کشاورزی، صنعت و خدمات برای دوره 2025 -2011 براساس پروژه تجزیه و تحلیل تجارت جهانی پویا بررسی نماید؛ بنابراین یک سناریوی تجارت ترجیحی برای ایران مطابق موافقت‌نامه شبیه‌سازی می‌شود. توافقنامه تجارت ترجیحی بین ایران و ترکیه منجر به تسهیل روابط تجاری بین این دو کشور می‌شود. نتایج حاصل از انعقاد موافقت‌نامه نشان‌دهنده افزایش سرمایه‌گذاری است و پیش‌بینی می‌گردد که این سرمایه‌گذاری بیشتر در بخش تولید کالاهای صنعتی صورت گیرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the Impact of Iran-Turkey Preferential Trade Agreement on Investment in Iran: A Dynamic GTAP Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Nasrin Farzi 1
  • Mohamad Reza Salmani Bishak 2
  • Mehdi Nejati 3
1 Ph.D. Candidate in International Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran
2 Assistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran
3 Assistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, Shahid Bahonar University, Kerman, Iran
چکیده [English]

Preferential trade agreements with major trade partners can play an important role in maintaining and deepening of current trade. The decision to invest is one of the key decisions in the field of economics and business. Turkey is one of Iran's important trading partners. This can lead to an increase in investment in Iran in order to attract foreign investors from Turkey to Iran, as well as lower the cost of imported inputs for domestic investors. This is especially important in the case of Iran. The present study intends to examine the effects of the trade agreement between Iran and Turkey (that is one of Iran's most important trading partners) on the amount of investment in agriculture, industry, and services since 2011- 2025 in Iran, so a preferential trade scenario for Iran is simulated according to the agreement. Preferential trade agreement between Iran and Turkey will facilitate trade relations, and this can lead to increased investment in Iran in order to attract foreign investors from Turkey, as well as lower the cost of imported inputs of domestic investors. The result of the agreement shows an increase in investment, and it is predicted that this investment will be made more in the production of industrial goods.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Preferential Trade Agreement
  • Investment
  • Global Trade Analysis Project
  • Tariff
  • Turkey
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