تحلیل اثر تکانه‌های سلامت و سیاست پولی بر متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی در چارچوب الگوی پول در تابع مطلوبیت

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری گروه اقتصاد دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران

2 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران

3 دانشجوی دکتری گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصاد دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران

چکیده

شیوع ویروس کرونا در درجه اول تهدیدی برای سلامت عمومی است، اما به طور فزاینده‌ای به یک تهدید اقتصادی تبدیل شده است که به یک واکنش سیاستی قاطع و هماهنگ نیاز دارد. پس از شیوع بیماری، مقامات پولی و مالی کشورها طیف وسیعی از اقدامات مانند تعطیلی مراکز آموزشی، مراکز خرید، پرداخت وام به قشر آسیب‌پذیر، واردات دارو، مهلت در بازپرداخت وام‌ها و غیره را برای محدود کردن شیوع ویروس انجام داده‌اند. مطالعه حاضر با هدف بررسی اثر سیاست پولی انبساطی در طول دوران شیوع یک بیماری پاندمیک انجام شده است. به این منظور، پس از کالیبراسیون پارامترها بر اساس اطلاعات فصلی اقتصاد ایران طی دوره زمانی 1399:04-1370:01، در سناریوهای مختلف و با توجه به میزان ماندگاری ریسک فاجعه سلامت، شبیه‏سازی الگو انجام شده است. نتایج نشان می‌دهند که شیوع یک بیماری پاندمیک، موجب کاهش ساعات کار و متعاقب آن کاهش بهره‏وری نهایی سرمایه فیزیکی می‏شود؛ بنابراین سرمایه‏گذاری فیزیکی، تولید، و مصرف کل کاهش می‏یابند. علاوه بر آن، اجرای یک سیاست پولی انبساطی در طول زمان شیوع، موجب کاهش شدت رکود اقتصادی می‌شود، اما با اُفت وضعیت سلامت خانوار همراه است. بنابراین توصیه می‌شود واکسیناسیون عمومی به عنوان یک اقدام ضروری در دستور کار قرار گیرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Analysis of the Effect of Health and Monetary Policy Shocks on Macroeconomic Variables in the Framework of Money in the Utility Function

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ali Keshavarzi 1
  • Hamid Reza Horry 2
  • Zahra Shahryari 3
1 Ph.D Candidate in Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran
2 Associate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran
3 Ph.D Candidate in Economics, Faculty of Administrative Science and Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran
چکیده [English]

The outbreak of the corona virus is primarily a threat to public health, but it is increasingly becoming an economic threat that requires a decisive and coordinated policy response. Following the outbreak, the country's monetary and financial authorities have taken a wide range of measures, such as closing educational centers, shopping malls, lending to the vulnerable, importing drugs, delaying loan repayments, etc. to limit the spread of the virus. The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of expansionary monetary policy during the outbreak of a pandemic disease. For this purpose, after calibrating the parameters based on the quarterly information of Iran's economy during the period 1991: 03: 01- 2021: 03: 20, in different scenarios and according to the persistence of health disaster risk, the model is simulated. The results show that the outbreak of a pandemic disease reduces working hours and consequently the marginal productivity of physical capital; thus physical investment, production, and total consumption are reduced. In addition, the implementation of an expansionary monetary policy during the outbreak reduces the severity of the recession, but is accompanied by a decline in household health. Therefore, it is recommended that public vaccination be included in the agenda as a necessary measure.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium
  • Health Shock
  • Monetary Policy
  • Sidrauski Model

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