بررسی اثرات سرریز تقاضای وسایل حمل و نقل عمومی درون‌شهری در کلان‌شهر تهران: الگوی خودرگرسیون برداری جامع

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد شهری و منطقه‌ای دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم اجتماعی دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران

2 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم اجتماعی دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران

3 استاد گروه اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم اجتماعی دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران

چکیده

واکنش تقاضای حمل و نقل عمومی درون‌شهری به انواع تکانه‌های داخلی و خارجی از مهم‌ترین مسائل در سیاست‌گذاری حمل و نقل عمومی درون‌شهری است. هدف این پژوهش بررسی اثرات سرریز تقاضای وسایل حمل و نقل عمومی درون‌شهری در کلان‌شهر تهران با استفاده از الگوی خودرگرسیون برداری جامع طی دوره زمانی ماهانه 1398-1387 است. نتایج توابع ضربه-واکنش نشان می‌دهد که وقوع تکانه مثبت در تقاضای مترو، تقاضای اتوبوس تندرو را افزایش و تقاضای اتوبوس عادی را کاهش، تکانه مثبت در تقاضای اتوبوس عادی، تقاضای مترو و اتوبوس تندرو را کاهش و وقوع تکانه مثبت در تقاضای اتوبوس تندرو، به افزایش تقاضای مترو و کاهش تقاضای اتوبوس عادی می‌انجامد. همچنین وقوع تکانه مثبت در کرایه مترو، تقاضای اتوبوس عادی و تندرو را کاهش داده و وقوع تکانه مثبت در کرایه اتوبوس عادی، افزایش تقاضای مترو و اتوبوس تندرو را به‌دنبال دارد. با وقوع تکانه مثبت در کرایه اتوبوس تندرو، تقاضای مترو افزایش و تقاضای اتوبوس عادی و تندرو با شیب کم افزایش می‌یابد. در نهایت با وقوع تکانه مثبت در قیمت بنزین، تقاضای مترو، اتوبوس عادی و تندرو افزایش خواهد یافت.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Spillover Effects of Urban Public Transport Vehicles in Tehran Megacity: Global Vector Autoregressive Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mahboobeh Shojaeian 1
  • Masoud Khodapanah 2
  • Mansour Zarra-Nezhad 3
1 Ph.D Candidate in Urban and Regional Economics, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran
2 Associate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran
3 Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran
چکیده [English]

Urban public transport demand response to various internal and external shocks is one of the most important issues in urban public transport policymaking. The purpose of this study is to investigate the spillover effects of demand for urban public transportation in Tehran megacity using global vector autoregressive approach during 2008-2019. The results of the impulse response function indicates that the occurrence of a positive shock in metro demand increases the demand for BRT and decreases the demand for bus, and a positive shock in bus demand declines the demand for metro as well as BRT, and a positive shock in BRT demand leads to the increase of metro demand and reduction of demand for common bus. Besides, a positive shock in metro fares decreases the demand for both BRT and common bus while a positive shock in bus fares increases the demand for metro and BRT. When a positive shock occurs in BRT fares the demand for metro increases while the demand for bus and BRT increases gradually. Also, a positive shock in gasoline price leads to the increase of demand for all three types of public transport modes.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Spillover Effects
  • Public Transportation Demand
  • Tehran Megacity
  • Global Vector Autoregressive Approach

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