شناسایی موانع رشد مبتنی بر صادرات در ایران با استفاده از درخت تصمیم ‏گیری

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

2 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

چکیده

رشد اقتصادی به عنوان یکی از مهمترین اهداف کلان اقتصادی همواره در کانون توجه اقتصاددانان، سیاستمداران و سیاستگذاران قرار دارد. لذا شناسایی عوامل مؤثر بر تحریک، تقویت و تسریع  رشد اقتصادی دارای ضرورت و اهمیت ویژه‎‎ای است. از جمله‏ی این عوامل می‎توان به  صادرات اشاره کرد که از دیرباز نقش بی‏بدیلی را در رشد اقتصادی کشورها ایفا کرده است. در این مطالعه از طریق ترسیم درخت تصمیم‏گیری به شناخت موانع مقیدکننده‏ی رشد مبتنی بر صادرات در ایران پرداخته می‏شود. نتایج بدست آمده نشان می‎دهد که در بحث رقابت ناپذیری قیمتی، موانع مقیدکننده شامل ریسک‎های خرد (فساد بالا)، ریسک‎های کلان (کسری بودجه‌ی بالا) و بالابودن هزینه‎های تولید (بهره‎وری پایین نیروی‏کار) است. در بحث اندک بودن کشش درآمدی تقاضای کالاهای صادراتی، موانع مقیدکننده شامل کیفیت پایین کالاهای صادراتی (ضعف تکنولوژی)، ارزش افزوده‏ی نازل کالاهای صادراتی (ضعف نهادی و اندک بودن اندازه‏ی بازار) است. علاوه‌براین با توجه به نتایج بدست آمده رقابت ناپذیری قیمتی در قیاس با اندک بودن کشش درآمدی تقاضای صادرات به عنوان مانع اصلی اندک بودن صادرات غیرنفتی در ایران شناخته می‏شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Identification of the Binding Constraints of Export Led Growth in Iran: Decision Tree Method Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hoora Majderezaee 1
  • Abolghasem Mahdavi 2
1 Ph.D Candidate in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
2 Associate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Economic growth, as one of the most important macroeconomic goals of the nations has always been at the center of the attention of economists, politicians, and policymakers. Hence, identifying the factors stimulating, improving, and accelerating it, is of special importance and necessity. Among the factors, exports have played a very critical role in economic growth of countries. In this article, applying the method of decision tree diagnosis, the binding constraints of export led growth in Iran are identified. The results show that as long as the price non-competitiveness is concerned, the binding constraints include micro risks (high corruption), macro-risks (high budget deficit), and high costs of production (low labor productivity). Concerning the low income elasticity of demand for exports, the binding constraints include low quality of export products (low technology) and low value added of export commodities (weak institutions and small market size). In addition to this, the results show that the non-competitiveness of prices, as compared to low income elasticity of demand for exports, is recognized as the main (or binding) constraint of Iran's exports.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Export Led Growth
  • Binding Constraints
  • Decision Tree Approach

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