الگو‌سازی سفته‌بازی در بازار مسکن شهر تهران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اجتماعی دانشگاه بوعلی سینا، همدان، ایران

2 دانشجوی دکتری گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اجتماعی دانشگاه بوعلی سینا، همدان، ایران

چکیده

سفته‌بازی در بازار مسکن یکی از عوامل اصلی نوسانات و شوک‌های بازار مسکن است که اثرات مخربی بر اقتصاد ملی و متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی دارد. وجود انگیزه سفته‌بازی و تأثیر پذیری قیمت مسکن از نوسانات و جابجایی مازاد نقدینگی در اقتصاد، قیمت مسکن را دچار نوسان کرده و ایجاد نوسانات ادواری، موجب ایجاد معضلات ساختاری بسیاری در بخش مسکن و اقتصاد ملی شده است. در این مطالعه، الگوی فضایی سفته‌بازی در بازار مسکن مناطق 22 گانه شهر تهران مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. دوره زمانی پژوهش 1380 تا 1398 بوده و برای برآورد الگوها از روش حداقل مربعات غیرخطی استفاده شده است. نتایج حاکی از آن است که انگیزه سفته‌بازی نتیجه انتظارات قیمتی و تحلیل روند قیمت دوره‌های گذشته بوده که به شکل تقاضای سفته‌بازی در بازار تأثیر زیادی در ایجاد نوسانات در بازار مسکن داشته است. همچنین با توجه به کم کشش بودن عرضه مسکن، می‌توان نتیجه گرفت که افزایش سرعت تولید و تقویت سمت عرضه، می‌تواند یک عامل اصلی در کنترل نوسانات بازار در پاسخگویی به تقاضای سفته‌بازی باشد. همچنین، نتایج نشان داد که شدت سفته‌بازی در مناطق 1، 2، 3، 5 و 22 شهر تهران بیشتر از سایر مناطق بوده و با حرکت از شمال به سمت جنوب شهر تهران، از شدت سفته‌بازی کم شده است. با توجه به نتایج پژوهش، سفته‌بازی در منطقه 1 شهر تهران قبل از سال 1380 شروع شده و برای سایر مناطق این شهر، از سال 1380 به بعد بوده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Modeling of Speculation in the Housing Market of Tehran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ali Akbar Gholizadeh 1
  • Salaheddin Manochehri 2
  • Yaghob Fatemi Zardan 2
1 Associate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamedan, Iran
2 Ph.D. Candidate in Economics, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamedan, Iran
چکیده [English]

Speculation in the housing market is one of the main causes of fluctuations and shocks in the housing market that have destructive effects on the macroeconomic variables. In this study, the spatial pattern of speculation in the housing market of 22 districts of Tehran has been investigated. The research period was 2001 to 2019 and Nonlinear Least Squares method was used to estimate the model. The results indicate that the motivation for speculation is the result of price expectations and price trend analysis of previous periods, which was reflected in the form of speculation demand in the market and have a significant impact on fluctuations in the housing market. Also, due to the low elasticity of housing supply, it can be concluded that increasing the speed of production and strengthening the supply side, can be a key factor in controlling market fluctuations by responding to the demand for speculation. The results show that the intensity of speculation in areas 1, 2, 3, 5 and 22 of Tehran is higher than other areas and by moving from north to south of Tehran, the intensity of speculation has decreased. According to the results, the speculation in region 1 of Tehran started before 2001 in the housing market and for other regions, the time of speculation started after 2001.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Housing Price
  • Speculation
  • Price Elasticity of Supply
  • Tehran

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