بررسی اثر کوید-19 بر تجارت بین‌الملل: رهیافت شبکه

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری گروه اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم اجتماعی دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران

2 استادیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم اجتماعی دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران

3 استادیار گروه کامپیوتر دانشکده علوم ریاضی و کامپیوتر دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران

10.29252/jem.2023.229751.1807

چکیده

همه‌گیری کوید-19 با اثرات متعدد بهداشتی، اجتماعی و اقتصادی جامعه بشری را به شدت تحت تأثیر قرار داده است. تأثیر آن بر تجارت بین‌الملل بسیار زیاد بوده؛ به گونه‌ای که سازمان تجارت جهانی بیان می‌کند که "همه‌گیری کوید-19 نشان‌دهنده یک اختلال بی سابقه در اقتصاد جهانی و تجارت جهانی است، زیرا تولید و مصرف در سراسر جهان کاهش یافته است". بنابراین گسترش همه‌گیری کوید-19 موجب تغییرات قابل توجهی در حجم و ساختار تجارت بین کشورها گردیده که ارزیابی و بررسی کمی این تغییرات حائز اهمیت است. از این‌رو در این مقاله  به بررسی روابط تجاری بین ایران و سایر کشورها در شبکه تجارت جهانی قبل و پس از همه‌گیری کوید-19 پرداخته شده است. در این راستا، با استفاده از داده‌های 149 کشور طی دو سال 2018 و 2020 و به کار گیری روش شبکه و استفاده از الگوریتم کشف اجتماع لیدن، اجتماعات تجاری شناسایی و سپس با استفاده از شاخص‌های مرکزیت و تراکم موقعیت و جایگاه کشور در اجتماع تجاری آسیا-آفریقا بررسی شده است. با مقایسه‌ی ساختار شبکه‌ی تجارت طی دو سال 2018 و 2020 نتایج نشان می‌دهد با همه‌گیری کوید-19 ساختار روابط تجاری و موقعیت اکثر کشورها  به ویژه کشور ایران به شدت تحت تأثیر قرار گرفته است؛ به گونه‌ای که شاخص‌های مرکزیت قدرت، نزدیکی، بردار ویژه و شاخص تراکم در سال 2020 در مقایسه با سال 2018 کاهش یافته است که بیانگر کاهش سهم تجارت، تنزل اهمیت و جایگاه کشورها به ویژه کشور ایران است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Examining the Impacts of Covid-19 on International Trade: The Network Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Elahe Rezaian 1
  • Ahmad Salahmanesh 2
  • Masoumeh Kheirkhahzadeh 3
1 PhD Candidate in Economics, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran
2 Assistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran
3 Assistant Professor of Computer Science, Faculty of Mathematical Sciences and Computer, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran
چکیده [English]

The COVID-19 pandemic produced an enormous impact on human society with multiple health, social and economic effects.  The impact on international trade has been enormous. Thus, the World Trade Organization (WTO) states that “the COVID-19 pandemic represents an unprecedented disruption to the global economy and world trade, as production and consumption are scaled back across the globe”. Thus, the spreading of the general pandemic COVID-19 has caused significant changes in the volume and structure of trade between countries. This essay examines the trade ties between Iran and other countries in the world trade network before and after the outbreak of the Covid-19. To this end, using the data provided by 149 countries in 2018 and 2020, and drawing on Network Analysis Method and Leiden’s Community Detection Algorithms, and then utilizing the indicators of centrality and density, the county's position in the Asian-African trade complex was put to examination. By comparing the structure of the trade network during the  2018 and 2020, the results show that with the outbreak of the Covid-19, the structure of trade relations and the position of most of the countries, especially Iran, has been severely affected, to an extent that the indicators of centrality of strength, closeness, the Eigen vector and density indicator have decreased in 2020 compared to 2018, which demonstrates the downfall in the share of trade and the decline in the importance and position of countries, especially Iran.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • World Trade Network
  • Centrality Measures
  • Community Detection
  • COVID-19

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