شناسایی عوامل موثر بر تنوع افقی صادراتی با طراحی شاخص جدیدی از تنوع صادراتی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری گروه اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم سیاسی دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران

2 استاد گروه اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم سیاسی دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران

10.29252/jem.2023.230782.1825

چکیده

متنوع‌سازی افقی صادرات، نقش بی‌بدیلی در ثبات درآمدهای ارزی، رشد پایدار بلندمدت و بهبود رابطه مبادله دارد. لذا مطالعه حاضر، عوامل موثر بر تنوع افقی صادرات غیرنفتی را در کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت، به روش خودرگرسیون  با وقفه‌های توزیعی و با استفاده از داده‌ی سال‌های 1400-1375، بررسی می‌کند.  ابتدا شاخص جدیدی از تنوع صادراتی، طراحی می‌شود، سپس برای ایران و کشورهای مقصد عمده صادراتی، محاسبه و جایگاه تنوع صادراتی ایران در بین این کشورها مشخص می‌شود. همچنین نتایج برآورد الگو حاکی از آن است که متغیرهای سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی غیرنفتی و نرخ ارز حقیقی، تأثیر معناداری بر شاخص تنوع صادراتی در بلندمدت ندارند. هزینه‌های تحقیق و توسعه و سرمایه‌گذاری ثابت ناخالص غیرنفتی، تأثیر مثبت و معناداری بر تنوع صادراتی در بلندمدت دارند. متغیر اعطای تسهیلات به بخش غیردولتی، اثرات منفی معناداری بر متغیر وابسته در بلندمدت به جای گذاشته و تحریم نیز تأثیر منفی معناداری در بلندمدت بر تنوع صادراتی داشته است. مطابق با نتایج الگو، افزایش بودجه تحقیق و توسعه دولت و اعطای وام به شرکت‌های صادرات‌محور با هدف اعتلای عملیات تحقیق و توسعه در این شرکت‌ها و سرمایه‌گذاری در بخش غیرنفتی، برای بهبود تنوع صادراتی می‌تواند راهگشا باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Identifying the Factors Affecting the Horizontal Diversification of Export by Introduction a New Index of Export Diversification

نویسندگان [English]

  • Zahra Faghiri 1
  • Parviz Davoodi 2
1 PhD Candidate in Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
2 Professor of Economic, Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

The horizontal diversification of exports has a unique role in the stability of foreign exchange earnings, long-term sustainable growth and improvement of the exchange relationship. Therefore, this study examines the factors affecting the horizontal diversification of non-oil exports in the short and long term, using autoregression distributed lag method during 1995-2021. First, a new index of export diversity is designed, which is more comprehensive than the existing indices. Then, this innovative index, for Iran and the major export destination countries, calculated and determined the position of Iran's export diversity among these countries. Also, with a new approach in estimating non-oil export diversity, variables such as non-oil foreign direct investment and non-oil domestic investment are used, so the effective factors of export diversity can be better identified. The results indicate that the variables of non-oil foreign direct investment and exchange rate do not have effects on the export diversity index in the long term. Research and development costs and non-oil gross fixed investment have a positive effect on export diversity in the long term. The variable of granting loans to the non-governmental sector has had negative effects on the dependent variable in the long term. The embargo has also had a negative impact on export diversity in the long term. According to the results, increasing the government's research and development budget and granting loans to export-oriented companies with the aim of enhancing research and development operations in these companies and investing in the non-oil sector can be a way to improve export diversification.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Horizontal Diversification of Exports
  • Research and Development Costs
  • Foreign Direct Investment
  • Auto-regressive Distributed Lag

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