بررسی تغییرات ساختاری در ایران و کشورهای صادرکننده گاز با تأکید بر قیمت گاز و بهره‌وری

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری گروه اقتصاد دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران

2 استاد گروه اقتصاد دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران

3 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران

چکیده

انرژی به‌عنوان یکی از نهاده‌های مهم تولید جایگاه ویژه‌ای در توسعه و پیشرفت اقتصادی هر کشور دارد. از این‌رو بررسی قیمت گاز می‌تواند برای ایران و کشورهای دارای منابع نفت و گاز حائز اهمیت باشد. براساس روند گذشته قیمت گاز در بازار جهانی، می‌توان نتیجه گرفت که قیمت گاز همواره متأثر از قیمت جهانی نفت بوده است. با توجه به نقش نیروی‌کار متخصص در دو بخش نفت و گاز کشورهای مورد مطالعه مهم است که، بتوان تأثیر همزمان قیمت گاز و بهره‌وری را بر جابه‌جایی نیروی‌کار بین این دو بخش اقتصادی مورد بررسی قرار داد. برای رسیدن به این هدف، در این پژوهش از الگوی تعادل عمومی قابل‌محاسبه پویا و ماتریس حسابداری اجتماعی 2014 استفاده شد و با توجه به پویایی الگوی روند تغییرات برای سال‌های2022-2030 پیش‌بینی شده است. نتایج حاکی از آن است که، با افزایش قیمت گاز و بهره‌وری، نیروی‌کار ماهر و غیرماهر از بخش نفت به گاز برای ایران و مجمع کشورهای صادرکننده گاز جابه‌جا می‌شود و این روند نیز در بلندمدت ادامه خواهد داشت. همچنین، این تکانه منجر به افزایش سرمایه و زمین به‌کار رفته در بخش گاز کشورهای صادرکننده گاز به‌ترتیب حدود 88 و 57 درصد و در ایران، سرمایه و زمین به‌کار رفته در بخش گاز به‌ترتیب حدود 5 و 5 درصد برآورد شد. بنابراین چانه‌زنی برای افزایش قیمت گاز و استفاده از روش‌های تکمیلی برای رشد بهره‌وری می‌تواند تغییرات ساختاری به‌همراه داشته باشد که در خدمت رشد اقتصادی ایران و کشورهای صادرکننده گاز باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating Structural Changes in Iran and Gas Exporting Countries with Emphasis on Gas Price and Productivity

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mina Javadinia 1
  • Seyed Abdolmajid Jalaee 2
  • Mehdi Nejati 3
1 PhD Candidate in Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, Shahid Bahonar University, Kerman, Iran
2 Professor of Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, Shahid Bahonar University, Kerman, Iran
3 Associate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, Shahid Bahonar University, Kerman, Iran
چکیده [English]

Energy, as one of the important inputs of production, has a special place in the economic development and progress of every country. Therefore, checking the price of gas can be important for Iran and countries with oil and gas resources. In addition, based on the past trend of gas prices in the world market, we can conclude that gas prices have always been affected by global oil prices. Considering the role of specialized labor in the two oil and gas sectors of the studied countries, it is important to be able to determine the simultaneous effect of the gas price and the total factor productivity on the transfer of labor between these two economic sectors. This research used the dynamic computable general equilibrium model and the social accounting matrix of 2014, and according to the dynamics of the model, the change process has been predicted for the years 2022-2030. The results indicate that, with the increase in the price of gas and the total factor productivity, skilled and unskilled labor is transferred from the oil sector to gas for Iran and the GECF, and this trend is also in the long term. Also, this impulse led to an increase of capital and land used in the gas sector of gas exporting countries by 88 and 57% respectively, and in Iran, capital and land used in the gas sector were estimated 5 and 5%. Therefore, bargaining to increase the price of gas and using additional methods to increase productivity can lead to structural changes that to serve the economic growth of Iran and GECF.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Gas Price and Productivity Shocks
  • Structural Changes
  • GECF Countries
  • Iran

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