اثر تنوع صادراتی بر نابرابری درآمد: شواهدی جدید از کشورهای با ریسک سیاسی بالا و پایین

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد نظری دانشکده اقتصاد دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران

2 دانشجوی دکتری گروه اقتصاد نظری دانشکده اقتصاد دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران

3 دانشجوی دکتری گروه اقتصاد بازرگانی دانشکده اقتصاد دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران

10.29252/jem.2023.231302.1835

چکیده

تنوع صادرات یک اقدام پیشگیرانه در برابر شوک‌های تجاری است که به صورت افزایش در تعداد کالاهای صادراتی و کاهش وابستگی یک کشور به یک منبع برای صادرات تعریف می‌شود و می‌تواند به ثبات اقتصاد کلان و بهبود فضای کسب‌وکار کمک کند. این شاخص، جنبه اساسی از فرآیند توسعه نه تنها برای دولت‌های رانتیر بلکه برای تمامی کشورها محسوب می‌شود که می‌تواند از طرق مختلف نابرابری درآمد را تحت‌تأثیر قرار دهد. بنابراین مطالعه حاضر باهدف بررسی اثر تنوع صادرات بر نابرابری درآمد و تأثیر ریسک سیاسی بر تعامل میان این دو متغیر، در 81 کشور با ریسک سیاسی بالا و پایین با استفاده از الگوی داده‌های تابلوئی‌کوانتایل بااثرات ثابت طی سال‌های 2019-2000 انجام شد. نتایج نشان داد که تنوع صادرات، نابرابری درآمد را در هر دو دسته کشورهای مورد بررسی، افزایش می‌دهد. بااین‌حال اثر آن بر نابرابری درآمد درکشوهای با ریسک سیاسی بالا بیشتر است که این نتیجه نشان می‌دهد، درکشورهای با ریسک سیاسی بالا، به علل مختلف مانند موانع تجاری و محدودیت بازگشت درآمد صادرات به‌داخل، هزینه‌های تنوع صادرات بالا است؛ لذا در این‌کشورها استفاده از نیروی‌کار ماهر باشدت بیشتری برای جبران هزینه‌های متنوع‌سازی صورت‌گرفته و سبب ایجاد شکاف دستمزدی و نابرابری بالاتر شده‌ است. صنعتی‌شدن و افزایش درجه بازبودن تجاری به‌طور معناداری نابرابری درآمد را کاهش و سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی، نابرابری درآمد را در هر دو دسته کشور افزایش می‌دهد. تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه اثر غیرخطی به شکل U معکوس بر نابرابری درآمد دارد که نشان می‌دهد، فرضیه کوزنتس تأیید می‌شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Export Diversification Effects on Income Inequality: New Evidence from Countries with High and Low Political Risk

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ali Asghar Salem 1
  • Leyla Jabari 2
  • Fereshteh Moradian 3
1 Associate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran
2 PhD Candidate in Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran
3 PhD Candidate in International Economics, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Export diversification is a preventive measure against trade shocks, which is defined as an increase in the number of export goods and a decrease in a country's dependence on a single source for exports, and it can help macroeconomic stability. This index is an essential aspect of the development process not only for rentier governments but also for all countries, which can affect income inequality in various ways. Therefore, the study tries to investigate the effect of export diversity on income inequality and the impacts of political risk on the interaction between these two variables, in 81 countries with high and low political risk using the panel quantile model with fixed effects during the years 2000-2019. The results show that export diversity increases income inequality in both groups of countries under investigation. However, export diversification effects on income inequality is greater in countries with high political risk. Therefore, in these countries, the more skilled labor has been used to compensate for the diversification costs and has caused a high wage gap. Industrialization and increasing the degree of trade openness reduce income inequality. Foreign direct investment increases income inequality in both categories of countries. GDP per capita has a non-linear inverse U-shaped effect on income inequality, that Kuznets' hypothesis is confirmed in both categories of countries.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Export Diversity
  • Income Inequality
  • Political Risk
  • Quantile Panel with Non-additive Fixed Effects

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