تحلیل زمان - فرکانسی واکنش سیاست پولی نسبت به شکاف تولید و انحراف تورم در اقتصاد ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار گروه اقتصاد و حسابداری دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی دانشگاه گیلان، رشت، ایران.

2 استادیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده کسب و کار و اقتصاد دانشگاه خلیج فارس، بوشهر، ایران

10.29252/jem.2023.232476.1850

چکیده

اقتصاددانان اهمیت ویژه‌ای برای الگوسازی رفتار سیاست‌گذاران و مقامات پولی نسبت به شرایط اقتصادکلان قائل هستند. برای این منظور، برآورد واکنش سیاست پولی نسبت به شکاف تولید و تورم به یکی از موضوعات کلیدی مبدل شده است. در این راستا، پژوهش حاضر با به کارگیری تبدیل موجک پیوسته و ابزار همدوسی چندگانه، همدوسی جزئی، اختلاف فاز جزئی و بهره موجک جزئی، سیاست پولی در اقتصاد ایران را در حوزه زمان – فرکانس طی دوره 1400:4 – 1367:1 ارزیابی می‌نماید. نتایج نشان از سلب کارکرد سیاست پولی در رویارویی با شکاف تورم دارند که عدم استقلال بانک مرکزی و سرایت ناترازی‌های اقتصادکلان به پایه پولی را منعکس می‌کند. با این توضیح که تنها در افق کوتاه‌مدت و طی سال‌های 1393 – 1392 واکنشی قاعده‌مند و مخالف چرخه‌ای اعمال شده است. در سایر افق‌ها و سال‌های دیگر، سیاست پولی فاقد اثرگذاری و یا مبتنی بر صلاح دید گزارش می‌شود که تشدید در انحراف تورم را در پی داشته است. در چرخه‌های تجاری بیش‌تر از 8 سال (افق بلندمدت)، سیاست پولی قاعده‌مند و ثبات ساز طی سال‌های 1387 – 1379 و 1393 – 1392 مشاهده شد. با وجود این، در افق متداول چرخه‌های تجاری (8 – 4 سال) که واکنش مخالف چرخه‌ای نسبت به شکاف تولید اهمیت بیش‌تری پیدا می‌کند، سیاست پولی نتوانسته رسالت خود را ایفا کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Time-frequency Analysis of Monetary Policy Response to Output Gap and Inflation Deviation in Iranian Economy

نویسندگان [English]

  • Saleh Taheri Bazkhaneh 1
  • Hadi Keshavarz 2
1 Assistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, University of Guilan, Rasht, Iran
2 Assistant Professor of Economics, Business and Economics School, Persian Gulf University, Boshehr, Iran
چکیده [English]

Modeling the behavior of policymakers and monetary authorities in relation to macroeconomic conditions is crucial for economists. Estimating the reaction function of monetary policy to the out gap and inflation gap has become one of the most important issues for this reason. In this regard, the current study used continuous wavelet transform and multiple coherence tools, partial coherence, partial phase difference, and partial wavelet gain to evaluate Iran's monetary policy in the time-frequency domain from 1988 to 2021. The results indicate that the reaction function of monetary policy in addressing the inflation gap has been inefficient, which reflects the central bank's lack of independence and the contagion of macroeconomic imbalances to the monetary base. If the short-run horizon and the years 2013-2014 were considered, a rule based, and counter-cyclical response was implemented. In other periods and years, it has been reported that monetary policy has no effect or is discretionary, resulting in an increase in inflation deviation. During the years 2000-2008 and 2013-2014, regular and stabilizing monetary policy was observed during business cycles with a horizon of more than eight years. In spite of this, the monetary policy has not been able to fulfill its mandate in the common horizon of business cycles (4-8 years), where the counter-cyclical reaction becomes more essential to the output gap.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Monetary Policy
  • Monetary Rule
  • Partial Wavelet Gain
  • Time-Frequency Analysis

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