تحلیل اثرات فراگیری مالی بر فقر و نابرابری درآمدی در ایران: رویکرد خودرگرسیون برداری با وقفه‌های توزیعی داده‌های تابلویی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری علوم اقتصادی گروه اقتصاد دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد واحد علوم و تحقیقات دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران،

2 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده مدیذیت و اقتصاد واحد علوم و تحقیقات دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران

3 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم سیاسی دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران

4 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد واحد علوم و تحقیقات دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران

10.48308/jem.2024.233494.1871

چکیده

طی سال‌های اخیر، موضوع فراگیری مالی به‌صورت روزافزونی مورد توجه قرار گرفته و به ‌عنوان یک مسئله مهم اقتصادی-اجتماعی در دستور کار سیاستی بسیاری از دولت‌ها و نهادهای بین‌المللی قرار گرفته است. افزایش توجه به این موضوع بیشتر به دلیل درک بهتر از اهمیت و جایگاه آن در توسعه اقتصادی و نقش کلیدی آن در کاهش فقر و توسعه فراگیر و پایدار جوامع است.  لذا در این مقاله به بررسی اثرات فراگیری مالی بر فقر و نابرابری درآمد در 30 استان کشور طی دوره زمانی 1399-1385 با استفاده از روش خودرگرسیون برداری با وقفه‌های توزیعی پرداخته شده است. نتایج حاصل از برآورد الگوی نابرابری درآمدی و فقر نشان می‌دهد، فراگیری مالی در کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت به ترتیب باعث افزایش و کاهش ضریب جینی (شاخص نابرابری درآمدی) و سرشمار فقر (شاخص فقر) شده است، به گونه‌ای که در بلندمدت با افزایش شاخص فراگیری مالی، ضریب جینی به اندازه 91/0 درصد و فقر به اندازه 20/0 درصد کاهش داشته‌اند. همچنین  می‌توان استدلال کرد که وجود بازار مالی قوی با ریسک کمتر، سرمایه‌گذاری‌های بیشتری را ترغیب می‌کند. این فرآیند علاوه‌بر بهبود تولید و اشتغال، باعث بهبود توزیع درآمدها و کاهش فقر می‌شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Analyzing the Effects of Financial Inclusion on Poverty and Income Inequality in Iran: Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lags Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Tahmoures Elyasi Baktiari 1
  • Abbas Memarnejad 2
  • Farhad Dejpasand 3
  • Farhad Ghaffari 4
1 PhD Candidate in Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, Islamic Azad University, Science and Research Branch, Tehran, Iran
2 Associate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, Islamic Azad University, Science and Research Branch, Tehran, Iran
3 Associate Professor Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
4 Associate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, Islamic Azad University, Science and Research Branch, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

In recent years, financial inclusion increasingly has been raised as an important socio-economic issue in the political agenda of many governments and international institutions. Increasing attention to this issue is due to a better understanding of its importance and place in economic development and its key role in poverty reduction and inclusive and sustainable development of societies. Therefore, in this study, the effects of financial inclusion on the poverty and income inequality in 30 provinces of the country during the period of 2006-2020 have been investigated using the Panel Autoregressive with Distributed Lags model. The results of the estimation of the income inequality and poverty model show that financial inclusion in the long and short term has caused a decrease and an increase in the Gini coefficient (income inequality index) and the poverty (poverty index), respectively. In such a way that in the long term, with the increase in the financial inclusion index, the Gini coefficient has decreased by 0.91 percent and poverty by 0.20 percent. It can be argued that the existence of a strong financial market with low risk encourages investments. In addition to improving production and employment, this process improves income distribution and reduces poverty.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Income Inequality
  • Poverty
  • Financial Inclusion
  • Panel Autoregressive with Distributed Lags

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