تأثیر مالیات سود سپرده‌های بانکی بر متغیرهای اقتصاد کلان تحت شرایط وجود و عدم وجود بازار سرمایه: رهیافت تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصاد دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران

2 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصاد دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران

3 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصاد، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران

10.48308/jem.2024.235271.1909

چکیده

از منابع اصلی تأمین مخارج دولت، درآمدهای مالیاتی است. در چند سال اخیر معرفی پایه‌های مالیاتی جدید موضوعی است که توجه سیاست‌گذاران اقتصادی را در حوزه مالیات‌ستانی به ‌خود جلب کرده است. اتکا برخی از کشورها به درآمدهای نفتی پیامدهای زیان‌باری در اقتصاد آنها ایجاد کرده است که مالیات بر سود سپرده‌های بانکی به عنوان پایه مالیاتی جدید، می‌تواند وابستگی به درآمدهای نفتی در این کشورها را کاهش دهد. در این پژوهش با مطالعه موردی کشور ایران، کارایی بازار سرمایه در هنگام برقراری مالیات بر سود سپرده بانکی با استفاده از روش تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی شبیه‌سازی شده و تأثیر آن بر متغیرهای اقتصاد کلان، با استفاده از داده‌های فصلی سال 1370 تا 1400 کاوش شده است. نتایچ نشان می‌دهد زمانی که بازار سرمایه در الگو وجود ندارد، اگر چه درآمدهای دولت افزایش یافته ولی میزان تولید از وضعیت ایستای خود انحراف منفی داشته است. بنابراین از این نوع مالیات نمی‌توان به عنوان یک درآمد پایدار استفاده کرد. در مقابل با ورود بازار سرمایه به الگو، دامنه نوسان متغیرهای اقتصادی کاهش یافته است و متغیر تولید نسبت به وضعیت ایستا خود انحراف مثبت پیدا کرده که نقش مثبت وجود بازار سرمایه در کاهش نوسان اقتصادی در هنگام وضع مالیات بر سود سپرده را نشان می‌دهد. بنابراین در هنگام رخ دادن یک تکانه پولی وجود یک بازار مکمل همانند بازار سرمایه در کنار سیستم بانکی می‌تواند نوسان‌ متغیرهای اقتصاد کلان را تا حدودی تعدیل نماید.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Effect of Taxing Interest Bank Deposit on Macroeconomic Variables in the Presence and Absence of the Capital Market: A DSGE Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohsen Sahari 1
  • Mohammad Vaez Barzani 2
  • Rasoul Bakhshi Dastjerdi 3
  • Hadi Amiri 2
1 PhD Candidate in Economics, Faculty of Administrative Sciences and Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran
2 Associate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Administrative Sciences and Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran
3 Associate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Administrative Sciences and Economics, University of Isfahan, , Isfahan, Iran
چکیده [English]

One of the primary sources of government expenditure is tax revenue. In recent years, the introduction of new tax bases has become a topic of interest for economic policymakers in the field of taxation. The reliance of some countries on oil revenues has caused harmful consequences for their economies, and taxing the interest on bank deposits, as a new tax base, could reduce dependency on oil revenues in these countries. In this study, with a case study of Iran, the efficiency of the capital market during the imposition of a tax on bank deposit interest is simulated using the DSGE model. Its impact on macroeconomic variables is explored using seasonal data from 1991 to 2021. The results show that when the capital market is not included in the model, although government revenues increase, production deviates negatively from its steady-state level. Therefore, this type of tax cannot be used as a sustainable source of revenue. On the other hand, when the capital market is incorporated into the model, the fluctuation range of economic variables decreases, and the production variable shows a positive deviation from its steady-state level. This highlights the positive role of the capital market in reducing economic fluctuations during the imposition of a tax on deposit interest. Thus, when a monetary shock occurs, the presence of a complementary market, such as the capital market alongside the banking system, can help to moderate fluctuations in macroeconomic variables to some extent.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model
  • Taxation
  • Bank Deposits Interest
  • Macroeconomic Variables

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