تأثیر ریسک سیاسی، نااطمینانی و پیچیدگی اقتصادی بر ردپای اکولوژیکی در کشورهای درحال توسعه‌ی صادرکننده‌ی نفت

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد بخش اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و علوم اجتماعی دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران

2 کارشناس ارشد بخش اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و علوم اجتماعی دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران

3 استادیار بخش اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و علوم اجتماعی دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران

10.48308/jem.2024.235137.1906

چکیده

هدف اصلی این پژوهش، بررسی اثر ریسک سیاسی، نااطمینانی و پیچیدگی بر ردپای اکولوژیکی در کشورهای درحال توسعه صادرکننده نفت است. الگوی تحقیق با استفاده از روش گشتاورهای تعمیم یافته سیستمی با بکارگیری داده‌های تابلوئی برای 22 کشور درحال توسعه صادرکننده نفت برآورد می‌شود. سایر متغیرهای کنترل شامل رشد اقتصادی، سرمایه انسانی، و باز بودن تجاری هستند. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که کاهش ریسک سیاسی باعث افزایش کیفیت محیط‌زیست می‌شود. بنابراین این کشورها باید با بهبود کیفیت نهادی برای کاهش ریسک سیاسی تلاش کنند. همچنین تنوع بخشیدن به اقتصاد این کشورها در جهت کاهش اتکا به نفت می‌تواند پاسخی استراتژیک به نااطمینانی جهانی باشد که منجر به ساختار اقتصادی پیچیده تر و آسیب  کم تر به محیط زیست می‌شود. به علاوه نتایج حاکی از آن است که افزایش پیچیدگی اقتصادی و باز بودن اقتصاد ردپای اکولوژیکی را افزایش می‌دهد. در این راستا کشورهای غنی نفتی در حال توسعه بایستی همزمان با افزایش مبادلات بین‌المللی نگاه ویژه به انتقال دانش فنی سبز از طریق تجارت سازگار با محیط زیست داشته باشند، و با بکارگیری سرمایه انسانی، در جهت ارتقاء و بکارگیری فناوری‌های پاک در استخراج منابع و تولید کالاهای سبز سیاست‌گذاری کنند. این یافته‌ها می‌تواند برای سیاست‌گذاری در حوزه محیط زیست و توسعه اقتصادی بکار گرفته شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Effect of Political Risk, Uncertainty, and Economic Complexity on Ecological Footprint in Oil-Exporting Developing Countries

نویسندگان [English]

  • Karim Eslamloueyan 1
  • Fateme َAsadi 2
  • Mahboubeh Jafari 3
1 Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Management and Social Sciences, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran
2 MA in Economics, Faculty of Economics, Management and Social Sciences, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran
3 Assistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Management and Social Sciences, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran
چکیده [English]

The main goal of this study is to investigate the effects of political risks, uncertainty, and economic complexity on the ecological footprint in a selection of developing countries. We estimate our model using the Systemic Generalized Moments method (SYS-GMM) for a panel of 22 oil-exporting developing countries. The method allows us to resolve the possible endogeneity problem. Other control variables include economic growth, human capital, and trade openness. The estimation results show that reducing political risks increases the quality of the environment. Moreover, an increase in the world uncertainty index improves the quality of the environment because it reduces investment and output growth in oil-exporting developing countries and, hence, decreases the use of natural resources. In addition, we also find that economic complexity increases the ecological footprint. In other words, higher complexity might result in lower environmental quality in oil-exporting economies. Furthermore, higher per capita GDP growth rate, human capital, and trade openness increase the ecological footprint. It means these variables are likely to increase environmental degradation in oil-exporting countries. Our results might have important policy implications for policymakers. Our research emphasizes the significance of mitigating political risks to enhance environmental quality.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Ecological Footprint
  • Political Risks
  • Economic Complexity
  • Uncertainty
  • Oil-Exporting Developing Countries

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