تحلیل مالیات بر سپرده‌های مدت‌دار بانکی در شرایط وجود کسری بودجه

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصاد دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران

2 دانشجوی دکتری گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصاد دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران

10.48308/jem.2024.236142.1927

چکیده

در راستای کاهش رفتارهای سفته‌بازی در اقتصاد ایران، قانون مالیات بر عایدی سرمایه در سال 1402در مجلس شورای اسلامی به تصویب رسید. بر اساس نظریه رجحان نقدینگی کینز،‌ سپرده‌های مدت‌دار بانکی مصداق انگیزه سفته‌بازی نگهداری پول هستند. بنابراین، افزایش سهم سپرده‌های مدت‌دار بانکی در اقتصاد ایران به عنوان ظرفیت بالقوه در بروز رفتارهای سفته‌بازانه در اقتصاد شناخته می‌شود. از طرفی دیگر، دولت به دلیل شرایط تحریم دچار ناترازی‌های مالی گشته و اثر این ناترازی‌ها می‌تواند باعث بروز رکود و تورم مزمن در اقتصاد گردد. اکنون سوال این است آیا مالیات بر چنین سپرده‌هایی می‌تواند راهکار مناسبی برای تأمین مالی دولت و کنترل تورم در اقتصاد ایران باشد؟ این پژوهش،‌ به دنبال بررسی اثرات مالیات بر میزان سپرده‌های مدت‌دار بانکی (به عنوان یک ظرفیت جدید مالیاتی) در اقتصاد ایران برای جبران کسری بودجه دولت و کاهش تورم به صورت یک تکانه برون‌زا در چارچوب یک الگوی پویای تصادفی کینزین جدید است. نتایج نشان می‌دهد با برقراری تکانه ناشی از نرخ مالیات بر سپرده‌های مدت‌دار بانکی، کسری بودجه دولت و نرخ تورم کاهش و مصرف خانوار و سطح تولید افزایش می‌یابد. در نتیجه این مالیات می‌تواند به عنوان ابزاری برای جبران کسری بودجه دولت و کنترل تورم استفاده شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Analysis of the Tax on Banking term Deposits under the Condition of Budget Deficit

نویسندگان [English]

  • Iman Bastanifar 1
  • Zahra Mohammadi 2
1 Associate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Administrative Sciences and Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran
2 PhD Candidate in Economics, Faculty of Administrative Sciences and Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran
چکیده [English]

In order to reduce speculative behavior in Iran's economy, the Capital Gains Tax Law was approved in the Islamic Parliament in 2023. According to Keynes' theory of liquidity preference, bank term deposits are an example of the speculative motive for holding money. Therefore, increasing the share of bank term deposits in Iran's economy is known as a potential capacity in the occurrence of speculative behavior in the economy. On the other hand, the government has faced financial instability as a result of the sanction, which can lead to stagnation and chronic inflation in the economy. Now the question is, can a tax on such deposits be a suitable solution for financing the government and controlling inflation in Iran's economy? This research aims to explore the impact of the tax shock on the amount of bank term deposits as a new tax base in the event of budget deficit in the framework of a New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model. The findings indicate that implementing this tax as a shock can lead to a decrease in the government budget deficit and inflation while it can increase consumption. Therefore, it can be an effective tool for decreasing budget deficit and inflation.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Budget Deficit
  • Speculation
  • Tax
  • Term Deposits

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