اقتصاد و الگو سازی

اقتصاد و الگو سازی

سنجش شدت تأثیر تحریم‌های اقتصادی در استان‌های ایران: رویکرد منطق فازی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی دکتری گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اجتماعی دانشگاه بوعلی سینا، همدان، ایران
2 استادیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اجتماعی دانشگاه بوعلی سینا، همدان، ایران
3 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اجتماعی دانشگاه بوعلی سینا، همدان، ایران
چکیده
در دهه‌های اخیر، تحریم‌های اقتصادی به ابزاری پرکاربرد در روابط بین‌الملل تبدیل شده‌اند که تأثیرات عمیقی بر متغیرهای اقتصادی کشورهای هدف برجای می‌گذارند. اغلب مطالعات موجود، تحلیل را در سطح ملی و با استفاده از متغیرهای مجازی انجام داده‌اند؛ رویکردی که قادر به بازتاب صحیح شدت، رفتار غیرخطی و تفاوت‌های منطقه‌ای تحریم‌ها نیست. پژوهش حاضر با هدف پوشش این خلأ، شاخصی برای سنجش شدت تحریم‌های اقتصادی در سطح استان‌های ایران طی سال‌های ۱۳۸۵ تا 1400 طراحی کرده است. این شاخص بر اساس منطق فازی و با بهره‌گیری از سه متغیر تورم، بیکاری و تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه، به کمک روش تحلیل عاملی انتخاب و در محیط نرم‌افزار متلب پردازش شده است. خروجی شاخص، مقدار پیوسته‌ای بین صفر و یک برای هر استان در هر سال ارائه می‌دهد که بیانگر شدت نسبی فشار تحریم‌هاست. یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد شدت اثرگذاری تحریم‌ها در سطح استان‌ها یکسان نبوده و برخی استان‌ها بیش از سایرین تحت تأثیر قرار گرفته‌اند؛ امری که به تفاوت‌های ساختاری، ظرفیت‌های اقتصادی و محدودیت‌های منطقه‌ای بازمی‌گردد. این نتایج بر اهمیت توجه به تفاوت‌های منطقه‌ای در سیاست‌گذاری‌های اقتصادی و اجتماعی تأکید داشته و می‌تواند مبنایی علمی و کاربردی برای تدوین برنامه‌های منطقه‌محور در مقابله با بحران‌های تحریمی و ارتقاء تاب‌آوری اقتصادی استان‌های کشور فراهم آورد.
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Measuring the Impact of Economic Sanctions in Iranian Provinces: A Fuzzy Logic Approach

نویسندگان English

Zahra Asemaneh 1
Seyed Ehsan Hosseinidoust 2
Aliakbar Gholizadeh 3
1 Ph.D. Candidate in Economics, Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamedan, Iran
2 Assistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamedan, Iran
3 Associate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamedan, Iran
چکیده English

In recent decades, economic sanctions have become a widely used instrument in international relations, exerting substantial pressure on the economic indicators of the target countries. Most existing studies have conducted analyses at the national level using dummy variables, a methodological approach that does not adequately capture the intensity, nonlinear dynamics, and regional disparities of sanctions. To address this gap, this study develops a regional index to measure the intensity of economic sanctions across Iranian provinces from 2006 to 2021. The index is constructed using fuzzy logic and is based on three key indicators: inflation, unemployment, and per capita gross domestic product, via factor analysis, and is calculated using MATLAB. The resulting index yields a continuous score between zero and one for each province and year, indicating the relative severity of sanction-induced pressure. Findings reveal that the impact of sanctions is not uniformly distributed across provinces; some regions have been significantly more affected due to structural differences, economic capacities, and regional constraints. These results underscore the importance of incorporating spatial disparities into economic and social policymaking. The results also provide a robust empirical basis for designing regionally targeted strategies to mitigate the effects of sanctions and enhance economic resilience.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Sanction Index
Fuzzy Logic
Macroeconomic Indicators
Iranian Provinces
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