تحلیل رابطه بین دولت، بانک مرکزی و سفته بازان در ایران: رهیافت نظریه بازی‌ها با رویکرد تعادل نش

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری و مربی دانشگاه پیام نور

2 دانشیار دانشگاه پیام نور تهران

3 استادیار دانشگاه پیام نور تهران

چکیده

تجربه سال‌های اخیر اقتصاد ایران نشان داده که سیاست‌های پولی، به دلیل دستوری بودن نرخ سود بانکی و انتشار اوراق مشارکت و  ایجاد رشد فزاینده بازدهی آن‌ها بیش از آنکه بر بخش واقعی اقتصاد موثر باشد باعث نوسانات اقتصادی گردیده که علاوه بر افزایش هزینه استقراض دولت، سبب افزایش حداقل نرخ جذب کننده سرمایه در سایر بازارها و افزایش سطح عمومی قیمتها و تاثیر بر رفتار سفته بازان شده است. در چنین شرایطی چگونگی ارتباط مقامات پولی و مالی و سفته بازان برای نیل به اهداف اقتصادی اهمیت ویژه‌ای دارد. از این رو در مقاله حاضر رابطه بین سه بازیکن دولت، بانک مرکزی و سفته بازان با استفاده از رهیافت نظریه بازی‌ها درچارچوب الگوی نش برای ایران در طی سالهای 1388- 1384 مورد تجزیه و تحلیل قرار گرفته است. بدین منظور برای هر یک از بازیکنان تابع زیانی (هدف) تعریف و از مجرای آن‌ها زیان اجتماعی محاسبه شده است. الگو‌سازی و تحلیل عددی برای حصول نتایج این پژوهش  با استفاده از نرم افزارهای میپل و گمز صورت گرفته است. بر اساس نتایج کمی حاصل شده می‌توان گفت که در تعادل نش کمترین زیان اجتماعی همراه با بهتر شدن وضع سفته بازان در شرایط استقلال ابزاری بانک مرکزی از دولت به دست آمده است. 

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Analyzing the Relationship among Government, Central Bank and Speculators in Iran: Approach of Game Theory and Nash Equilibrium

نویسندگان [English]

  • Nasrin Mansouri 1
  • Yeganeh Mosavi jahromy 2
  • Asghar Abolhasani 2
  • Bita Shayegani 3
1 PhD Student and; Academic Coach in PAYAM NOOR University
2 Associate Professor of Payam Noor University
3 Assistant Professor of PAYAM NOOR University
چکیده [English]

The experience of recent years has shown monetary policies have caused economic fluctuations rather than affect real economy because of administrative  interest rate, issuing bonds and increasing their returns. These actions not only have increase the cost of government borrowing, but also increasing the minimum rates of absorbing capital in other markets and finally increased the general level of prices as well. In such situation, study about the relationship between  fiscal and monetary authorities and speculators to achieving economic goals is important.therefore, in this paper,the relationship between three players, including government, central bank and speculators, has been analyzed using game theory according to Nash approaches in Iran, during (1384- 1388). For this purpose, a loss function (objective function) is defined for each player and via them the social loss is calculated. For obtaining quantitative results GAMS and MAPLE  software have been used. Based on the results, the minimum of social loss along with improving speculators welfare (less loss) is obtained through central bank independence from the government. 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Monetary Policy
  • bonds
  • Nash equilibrium
  • game theory

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