استفاده از الگوهای متغیر وابسته گسسته در تحلیل رفتار مصرفی خانوار (مورد مصرف دخانیات)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

استادیار گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه علوم و فنون دریایی خرمشهر

چکیده

هدف از نگارش این مقاله، ارائه سیر تکاملی برآوردکننده­های مناسب متغیر وابسته گسسته، ارائه نکاتی در مورد تحقیقات صورت گرفته مشابه در داخل کشور، خطاهای متداول در برآورد توابع تقاضا و رویکردهای اقتصاد سنجی نوین در استفاده بهینه از اطلاعات داده‌هایی با وجود صفرهای مکرر است. بدین منظور، از داده‌های مصرف دخانیات در سال 1390 برگرفته از مرکز آمار ایران برای 31120 خانوار شهری و روستایی استفاده شده است. ممکن است در مورد مصرف سیگار، حتی بیش از نیمی از مشاهدات صفر و مابقی آنها عددی مثبت باشند. در واقع، بسیاری از افراد اصلاَ مصرف‌کننده بالقوه نبوده و مشارکتی در مصرف دخانیات ندارند. در این مطالعه با استفاده از داده‌های هزینه درآمد خانوارهای شهری روستایی ایران در سال1390  نشان داده شده که برآوردهای حداقل مربعات، توبیت و حتی هکمن از قدرت توضیح دهندگی پایینی نسبت به مدل دابل هاردل (دو مانعی) برخوردار بوده و از این حیث موافق نتایج مطالعات معتبر اخیر صورت گرفته در دنیا بوده است. 

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Using Limited dependent variable models to analyze household consumption behavior (The Case of Tobacco)

نویسنده [English]

  • Mohammad Amin Kuhbor
Assistant Professor, Khorramshahr University of Marine Science and Technology
چکیده [English]

The aim of this article is to show the evolution of limited dependent variable models, giving some points on prior researches, common issues comes from demand estimation and also, modern econometric achievements in the use of zero inflated data. We used Iranian households’ consumption for tobacco in 2011 in which, most of the data for tobacco consumption are reported zero. In the other word, some households didn’t participate in tobacco consumption and were not potentially tobacco consumer or tobacco addicted. Results indicated that OLS, Tobit and Heckit estimators could not explain tobacco consumption as well as the double hurdle and is similar to many other researches which recently have done around the world. 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Tobacco Demand
  • Limited Dependent Variable
  • Double Hurdle
  • Tobit
  • Heckit
  • Microeconometric
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