بررسی تأثیر شکاف قیمت انرژی بر ارزش واردات ایران از شرکای عمده تجاری: رهیافت داده‌های تابلویی فضایی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد دانشگاه خوارزمی

2 استادیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد دانشگاه خوارزمی

3 کارشناس ارشد اقتصاد انرژی دانشکده اقتصاد دانشگاه خوارزمی

چکیده

بررسی تأثیر شکاف قیمت انرژی بر ارزش واردات ایران از مهم‌ترین شرکای تجاری آن یکی از موضوعات مهم و اساسی در ادبیات تجارت بین­الملل بوده و بخش عمده­ای از مطالعات تجربی را در سال­های اخیر به خود اختصاص داده است. از این رو، در این مطالعه با استفاده از روش­های مختلف داده­های تابلویی فضایی به بررسی تاثیر شکاف قیمت انرژی محاسبه شده بر اساس شاخص ساتو و دچزلپرته بر ارزش واردات ایران از شرکای عمده تجاری طی سال‌های 2016-2000 پرداخته شده است. یافته‌های پژوهش بیانگر این است که اثر سرریز فضایی در روش دوربین فضایی مورد تأیید قرار گرفته و قیمت انرژی تأثیر منفی و معنادار بر ارزش واردات ایران از شرکای تجاری آن داشته، به طوری که افزایش شکاف قیمت‌انرژی منجر به کاهش بیشتر واردات ایران از شرکای تجاری شده است. همچنین متغیرهای شاخص تشابه دو کشور و نرخ مؤثر حقیقی ارز دارای اثرگذاری منفی و معنادار بر ارزش واردات ایران از شرکای تجاری عمده هستند. علاوه بر این، نتایج آزمون والد بیانگر نامتقارن بودن اثر شکاف قیمت انرژی در دوره زمانی مورد مطالعه است. 

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Impact of Energy Price Gap on the Import Value of Iran from Major Trade Partners: Spatial Panel Data Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohsen Ebrahimi 1
  • Majid Feshari 2
  • Mohammad Javad Fazel 3
1 Associate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Kharazmi University
2 Assistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Kharazmi University
3 MA in Energy Economics, Faculty of Economics, Kharazmi University
چکیده [English]

The relationship between energy price gap and import value of Iran from major trade partners is one of the main issues in international trade literature and has been considered empirically in recent years. So, in this paper by using Sato and Dechezleprˆetre index, the energy price gap has been calculated and then, the empirical model has been estimated between Iran and major trade partners during 2000-2016. The empirical findings of this study reveal that the spillover effect has been confirmed for spatial Durbin model. Moreover, the energy price gap has negative and significant impact on the import value of Iran from main trade partners. In other words, with increase of energy price gap, the import of Iran from its major trade partners decreases. The other findings of this paper indicated that the similarity index and real effective exchange rate variables have negative and significant impact on the import value of Iran from main trade partners.  Moreover, energy price gap between Iran and major trade partners during the period of study is asymmetric. That means the increase and decrease effects of energy price gap on the import value of Iran is not equal.    

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Energy Prices Gap
  • Bilateral Trade
  • Asymmetry Effects
  • Spatial Econometrics

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