اثرات محدودیت منابع آبی بر برنامه‌ریزی گسترش ظرفیت تولید برق: کاربرد الگوی چند هدفه تحت شرایط نااطمینانی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری علوم اقتصادی دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان

2 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران

3 استاد گروه اقتصاد دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان

4 دانشیار گروه مهندسی برق- قدرت دانشکده مهندسی دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران

چکیده

هدف مطالعه حاضر، برنامه‌ریزی گسترش ظرفیت تولید برق با تأمین همزمان اهداف اقتصادی و زیست محیطی تحت نا‌اطمینانی جهت تأمین تقاضای برق است. نا‌اطمینانی­ تقاضا و ضریب ظرفیت تولیدی برق (نا‌اطمینانی­ عرضه) به صورت یک مجموعه فازی بیان شد. همچنین، اثرات محدودیت منابع آبی بر برنامه گسترش ظرفیت تولید بررسی گردید. الگوی غیرخطی چند هدفه فازی برای یک نمونه واقعی سیستم برنامه‌ریزی گسترش ظرفیت تولید برق استان کرمان برای یک دوره 12 ساله با و بدون محدودیت منابع آبی به کار گرفته شد. نتایج نشان داد که محدودیت منابع آبی باعث تغییر برنامه گسترش ظرفیت استان خواهد شد. با در نظر گرفتن محدودیت منابع آبی، ظرفیت نیروگاه­های بادی، گاز-چرخه ترکیبی و فتوولتائیک در طول افق برنامه‌ریزی به ترتیب 1000، 950/924 و 500 مگاوات افزایش خواهد یافت. این در حالی است که نتایج الگو بدون محدودیت منابع آبی نشان داد که در طول افق برنامه‌ریزی ظرفیت نیروگاه­های بادی، آبی و زغال سنگ به ترتیب 1000، 130/983 و 720/163 مگاوات افزایش می‌یابد. بنابراین برای مناطقی که در شرایط بحرانی منابع آب قرار دارند، تولید کمتر برق با سوخت زغال سنگ و آبی پیشنهاد می‌شود. تفاوت در نتایج، اهمیت تحلیل یکپارچه و جامع برنامه‌ریزی گسترش ظرفیت تولید برق را نمایان می‌سازد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Effects of Water Resources Limitation on Capacity Expansion Planning of Power Generation: An Application of Multi-Objective Model under Uncertainty Conditions

نویسندگان [English]

  • Yahya Hatami 1
  • Zeinolabedin Sadeghi 2
  • Seyed Abdolmajid Jalaei 3
  • Amir Abdollahi 4
1 PhD Candidate in Economics, Faculty of Managemnt and Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman
2 Associate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Managemnt and Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran
3 Professor of Economics, Faculty of Managemnt and Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran
4 Associate Professor of Electrical Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman
چکیده [English]

The purpose of the present study is capacity expansion planning of power generation by simultaneously achieving economic and environmental objectives under uncertainty to meet electicity demand. Uncertainty in demand and power generation capacity factor (supply uncertainty) were expressed as a fuzzy set. Also, the effects of water resources limitation were investigated on power generation capacity expansion planning. Fuzzy multi-objective non-linear model was used for a case study of Kerman power generation capacity expansion planning system for a 12-year period with and without water resources limitation. The results show that water resource limitation will change the province power capacity expansion plan. Considering the water resources limitation, capacity of wind, gas-cycle combined and photovoltaic plants are increased 1000, 924.950 and 500 MW respectively during the planning horizon.The results of model without water resources limitation show that capacity of wind, hydro and coal fuel are increased 1000, 983.130 and 163.720 MW during planning horizon. Therefore, less power generation of coal fuel and hydro are suggested for area that are in critical conditions of water resources. The difference in results reveals the importance of integrated and comprehensive planning for the power generation capacity expansion.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Power Generation Capacity Expansion Planning
  • Fuzzy Multi-objective Non-linear Model
  • Water Resources Limitation
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