تحلیل اثرات جهانی‌شدن بر کسری بودجه دولت‌ها: رهیافت همسان‌سازی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم ادرای و اقتصاد دانشگاه اصفهان

2 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد دانشکده علوم ادرای و اقتصاد دانشگاه اصفهان

3 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد دانشکده علوم ادرای و اقتصاد دانشگاه اصفهان، (نویسنده مسئول)

10.29252/ecoj.10.1.65

چکیده

در فرآیند جهانی­ شدن، مناسبات مختلفی مانند توسعه روابط مالی بین کشورها را می‌توان در نظر گرفت که  ازجمله‌ی آن‌ها جهانی‌شدن مالی است. جهانی‌شدن  مالی مفهومی است که به افزایش ارتباطات جهانی از طریق گسترش جریان‌های مالی بین­المللی و سرمایه­ای اشاره دارد. بنابراین می­توان گفت هرگونه ارتباط مالی کشورها که با رویکردهای متفاوت منجر به گسترش ارتباطات جهانی شود، جهانی‌شدن مالی را توسعه می‌بخشد. این پژوهش به این موضوع پرداخته است که چگونه سیاست‌های یکپارچه­سازی مالی بر هزینه‌ها و درآمدهای دولت­های منتخب تأثیر گذاشته و برآیند این اثرات بر کسری بودجه و بدهی عمومی دولت چه اندازه است. در این راستا کسری بودجه 165 کشور عضو و غیر عضو سازمان همکاری و توسعه­ی اقتصادی (OECD) در سال 2015 از طریق رهیافت همسان­سازی (مچینگ) در ارزیابی برنامه که با استفاده از ضریب تمایل و وزن­های کرنلی اجرا گردیده، با یکدیگر مقایسه شده­اند. برای خالص کردن اثرات جهانی­شدن مالی بر بدهی عمومی  و جدا کردن تأثیر بقیه­ی متغیرها، عوامل مؤثر دیگر مانند تولید داخلی سرانه، مخارج دولت، مالیات‌ها و آزادسازی تجاری به‌عنوان مچ در نظر گرفته شده‌اند. نتایج به دست آمده بر این دلالت دارند که جهانی‌شدن مالی باعث افزایش کسری بودجه می‌گردد که از علل این تأثیر می‌توان به اجبار دولت­ها به کاهش مالیات‌ها از جمله مالیات بر سرمایه برای جلوگیری از فرار سرمایه و هم­چنین دسترسی آسان‌تر دولت‌ها به بازارهای مالی بین‌المللی برای تأمین مالی مخارج و درنتیجه اخد وام­های بیشتر اشاره کرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Analyzing the Effects of Globalization on the Government Budget Deficit: The Matching Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Seyed Komeil Tayebi 1
  • Alireza Kamalian 2
  • Ali Sarkhosh Sara 3
  • Mostafa Mobini Dehkordi 2
1 Professor of Economics, Faculty of Administrative Sciences and Economics, University of Isfahan
2 Ph.D Candidate in Economics, Faculty of Administrative Sciences and Economics, University of Isfahan
3 Ph.D Candidate in Economics, Faculty of Administrative Sciences and Economics, University of Isfahan, (Corresponding Author)
چکیده [English]

In the process of globalization, various relations, such as the development of financial relations between countries can be considered as financial globalization. Financial globalization refers to the concept of increasing global communication through the expansion of international financial and capital flows. Therefore, it can be said that any financial relationship between countries, through different approaches, leading to the expansion of global communication develops financial globalization. This study focuses on how financial integration policies affect government spending and revenues, and how the outcome of these effects will impact government deficit and public debt. To this end, this paper has compered the budget deficit of 165 countries from OECD and non-OECD members in 2015 through the matching approach using the kernel weights and propensity score. To purify the effects of financial globalization on public debt and to isolate the effects of other variables, influential factors such as per capita domestic production, government spending, taxes, and trade liberalization are considered as a match. The results suggest that financial globalization has led to an increase in the budget deficit, which can be attributed to the reduction of taxes on capital to prevent capital outflow by the governments and better access to the international financial markets to finance further expenditures.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Financial Globalization
  • Budget Deficit
  • Government Debt
  • Matching
  • Treatment Evaluation

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