نوسان رشد اقتصادی و نوسان درآمدهای نفتی درکشورهای عضو اوپک: بررسی نقش توسعه مالی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری دانشگاه مازندران

2 کارشناسی‌ارشد اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری دانشگاه مازندران

10.29252/ecoj.10.1.97

چکیده

با توجه به اهمیت رابطه بین وفور منابع طبیعی و رشد اقتصادی در کشورهای غنی از این منابع، ارزیابی زوایای مختلف این رابطه جهت اتخاذ سیاست‌های مناسب اقتصادی ضروری به نظر می‌رسد. در این مطالعه نقش و اهمیت توسعه مالی در رابطه بین نوسانات درآمدهای نفتی و نوسانات رشد اقتصادی در کشورهای عضو اوپک مورد بررسی قرار می‌گیرد. الگوسازی پژوهش بر اساس روش داده‌های تابلویی پویا طی دوره زمانی 2016-2005 صورت گرفته است و روابط بین متغیرها با استفاده از تکنیک گشتاورهای تعمیم یافته سیستمی برآورد گردیده است. نتایج حاصل بیانگر این است که نوسانات ناشی از وفور درآمدهای نفتی موجب نوسانات رشد اقتصادی در کشورهای عضو اوپک طی دوره مورد بررسی گردیده است. علاوه‌براین شواهدی وجود دارد که نشان می‌دهد توسعه مالی باعث کاهش اثر نوسانات ناشی از وفور درآمدهای نفتی بر نوسانات رشد اقتصادی طی دوره مورد بررسی گردیده است. 

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Volatility of Economic Growth and Oil Revenue in OPEC Countries: The Role of Financial Development

نویسندگان [English]

  • Majid Aghaei 1
  • Mahdieh Rezagholizadeh 1
  • Fatemeh Asadollahtabar 2
1 Assistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, University of Mazandaran, (Corresponding Author)
2 MA in Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, University of Mazandaran
چکیده [English]

Assessment of different aspect of the relationship between natural resource abundance and economic growth seems to be necessary in order to make the appropriate economic policies. In this study, the importance and the role of financial development in the relationship between oil revenue volatility and economic growth volatility in OPEC countries will be investigated. The modeling in this research have done based on a dynamic panel model with annual data 2005-2016, and the relationship between variables is estimated by the system generalized method of moments technique. The findings indicate that oil resource abundance volatility leads to economic growth volatility in OPEC members. Also, the research shows that financial development dampens the effect of oil abundance volatility in OPEC members.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Financial Development
  • Oil Revenue Volatility
  • System GMM model
  • Economic Growth Volatility

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