اثرات نامتقارن تغییرات نرخ ارز بر تجارت ایران و چین

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اجتماعی دانشگاه رازی، کرمانشاه، ایران

2 کارشناس ارشد اقتصاد انرژی دانشکده علوم اجتماعی دانشگاه رازی، کرمانشاه، ایران

3 کارشناس ارشد اقتصاد انرژی دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه رازی، کرمانشاه، ایران

10.29252/ecoj.10.3.41

چکیده

نرخ ارز و سیاست‌گذاری‌های ارزی در ایران، همواره یکی از چالش‌های اصلی اقتصاد کشور بوده و مباحث چالش ‌برانگیزی پیرامون نحوه تعیین نرخ ارز و آثار آن بر متغیرهای اقتصادی و بخصوص تجارت خارجی و تعادل تجارت در جریان بوده است. در این راستا این مقاله اثر نرخ ارز حقیقی بر تعادل تجاری بین ایران و یکی از بزرگترین شرکای تجاری آن یعنی چین با استفاده از روش نامتقارن غیر­خطی برای دوره زمانی 1371-1395 پرداخته و اثرات افزایشی و کاهشی نرخ ارز حقیقی را بر تعادل تجاری دو کشور مورد بررسی و تجزیه و تحلیل قرار می‌دهد. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که افزایش نرخ ارز در بلندمدت و کوتاه‌مدت موجب بهبود تعادل تجاری ایران در مقابل چین می‌گردد، هر چند که اثر بلندمدت بیش‌تر از اثرات کوتاه‌مدت آن است. اما کاهش ارزش حقیقی یوان موجب می‌شود که این رابطه به سود چین تغییر یابد، همچنین اثر کاهشی نرخ ارز بیش‌تر از اثر افزایشی آن بر تعادل تجارت بین دو کشور است. بنابراین پیشنهاد می‌شود تا با حقیقی کردن ارزش ریال در مقابل یوان  و اجازه دادن به کاهش ارزش پول ملی همسو با تورم و سایر شاخص‌ها موجب افزایش رقابت و گسترش تجارت خارجی فراهم شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Asymmetric Effects of Real Exchange Rate Changes on the Trade between Iran and China

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammad Sharif Karimi 1
  • Shiva Ghaderi 2
  • Jelveh Seifoori 3
1 Assistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences, Razi University, Kermanshah, Iran
2 MA in Energy Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences, Razi University, Kermanshah, Iran
3 MA in Energy Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences, Razi University, Kermanshah, Iran
چکیده [English]

The Exchange rate and policies related to that have long been a subject of interest in Iran and one of the main challenges of the country's economy. The exchange rate determinant, effects of currency depreciation or devaluation on a country's trade balance and economic variables are usually critical issue in Iran. So, this paper examines the effect of the real exchange rate on the trade balance between Iran and China which is one of its largest current trade partners. For this purpose, a nonlinear symmetric method is used over the period of 1993-2016. The results show that the most appropriate method in such studies is the use of asymmetric and nonlinear models, and it provides more efficient short-run and long-run coefficient estimates. On the other hand, the increase of the exchange rate, which is the depreciation of the Rial against the Yuan, improves in the long-run and short-run trade, although its long-term effect has been more than its short-term effects. But the depreciation of the Yuan makes the balance in favor of China, as well as the effect of the depreciation of the exchange rate more than its effect on the trade balance between the two countries. Therefore, it is suggested that the realization of the value of the Rial against the yuan and allowing the depreciation of the national currency in line with inflation and other indicators would increase the competitiveness and expand foreign trade.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Real Exchange Rate
  • Trade Balance
  • Nonlinear Asymmetric
  • Iran
  • China

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