اثر بی‌ثباتی نرخ ارز بر رشد اقتصادی تحت رژیم‌های مختلف ارزی و ساختار مالی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و بازرگانی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران

2 استاد گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و بازرگانی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران

10.29252/ecoj.10.3.75

چکیده

این پژوهش به بررسی نقش رژیم­های ارزی و ساختار مالی بر رابطه بین بی‌ثباتی نرخ ارز و رشد اقتصادی می‌پردازد. هدف اصلی این است که علیرغم این که بی‌ثباتی نرخ ارز می‌تواند بر عملکرد متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی اثر منفی بگذارد، اما ساختار مالی همانند یک کانال می‌تواند، اثر این بی ثباتی را تغییر دهد. برای بررسی این رابطه، داده‌های 53 کشور با رژیم ارزی شناور و ثابت طی بازه زمانی 2016-1987 در نظر گرفته شده است. به منظور برآورد بی‌ثباتی نرخ ارز از الگوی واریانس ناهمسانی شرطی اتورگرسیو تعمیم یافته و برای تشخیص اثر بی‌ثباتی ارز بر رشد اقتصادی از روش پویای گشتاورهای تعمیم یافته استفاده شده است. نتایج حاصل نشان می‌دهد که در کشورهای با رژیم ارزی شناور، اثر بی‌ثباتی نرخ ارز بر رشد اقتصادی در ساختار مالی بانک محور منفی بوده و با افزایش سطح شاخص ساختار مالی از یک سطح آستانه ای، اثر مثبت بی‌ثباتی نرخ ارز بر رشد تولید ناخالص داخلی مشاهده شده است. پس می‌توان نتیجه گرفت که کشورهای با رژیم ارزی شناور در بلندمدت با انتقال نظام مالی از بانک محور به بازار محور می‌توانند از اثرات نامطلوب بی‌ثباتی نرخ ارز جلوگیری کنند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Economic Growth under Different Exchange Rate Regimes and Financial Structures

نویسندگان [English]

  • Elham Mohammadi 1
  • Ali Reza Kazerooni 2
  • Hossein Asgharpur 2
1 Ph.D Candidate in Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran
2 Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran
چکیده [English]

This paper examines the role of different exchange rate regimes and financial structures on nexus between exchange rate volatility on economic growth. The main goal is that, even though the exchange rate volatility can negatively affect the performance of macroeconomic variables, the financial structure, like a channel, can change the effect of these volatility. To investigate this relationship, information of 53 countries with floating and fixed exchange rate regimes in the period of 1980-2016 are considered. GARCH technique is used to estimate exchange rate volatility and Difference GMM technique for estimating the model. Based on the results of the estimation for the whole of the selected countries, the financial structure has a positive and significant effect on economic growth and decreases the negative effect of the exchange rate volatility on economic growth, but with a separate estimate for countries with fixed and floating exchange rate regimes, The results indicate that the financial structure index has a positive and significant effect on the economic growth of countries with floating exchange regime. Therefore, it can be argued that countries with floating exchange rate regime in the long run with the transfer of the financial system from the bank-based to the market-based can prevent the adverse effects of exchange rate volatility, but for countries with fixed exchange rate regime, has no significant effect.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Dynamic Panel
  • Exchange Rate Volatility
  • Economic Growth
  • Financial Structure

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