تجزیه اثرات بازگشتی ناشی از افزایش کارایی انرژی در ایران: رهیافت الگوی تعادل عمومی محاسبه‌پذیر

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد نفت و گاز دانشکده اقتصاد دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی، تهران، ایران

2 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی، تهران، ایران

3 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد بازرگانی دانشکده اقتصاد دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی، تهران، ایران

10.29252/ecoj.10.3.99

چکیده

یکی از روش‌های کاهش مصرف انرژی، بهبود کارایی انرژی در فعالیت‌های مختلف اقتصادی است. اما میزان صرفه‌جویی انرژی به دلیل وجود اثرات بازگشتی ممکن است محدود شود. یکی از چالش‌های محاسبه اثرات بازگشتی، تجزیه اثرات بازگشتی به اثرات بازگشتی مستقیم و اثرات بازگشتی در گسترده اقتصاد است تا بتوان تأثیر افزایش کارایی را به صورت مستقیم و با درنظرگرفتن تمام تطابقات بازارها از یکدیگر تفکیک کرد. هدف مقاله حاضر ارائه الگو نظری برای تجزیه اثرات بازگشتی و محاسبه آن در فعالیت‌های مختلف با استفاده از الگوی تعادل عمومی قابل محاسبه است. براساس نتایج الگوسازی و با استفاده از داده‌های ماتریس حسابداری اجتماعی سال 1390، اثر بازگشتی برای افزایش یک درصدی کارایی برق و سوخت‎های فسیلی به ترتیب 1/90 و 8/72 درصد است. اثرات بازگشتی گسترده اقتصاد نیز تفاوت چندانی با اثرات بازگشتی مستقیم و غیرمستقیم ندارد، چرا که خانوارها به دلیل سهم پایین هزینه انرژی از مخارج خانوار به افزایش کارایی در این بخش چندان واکنش نشان نمی‌دهند و بنابراین اثر بازگشتی گسترده اقتصاد 9/89 و 5/72 است. اثرات بازگشتی بالای مشاهده شده در اقتصاد ایران سبب خواهد شد اثرگذاری سیاست افزایش کارایی بر کاهش مصرف انرژی محدود شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Decomposition of Rebound Effect in Iran: The Approach of Computable General Equilibrium

نویسندگان [English]

  • Fatemeh Rafiei 1
  • Manouchehr Asgari 2
  • Hamidreza Arbab 3
1 Ph.D Candidate in Economics, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran
2 Associate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran
3 Associate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

One way to reduce energy consumption is to improve energy efficiency in various economic activities. But energy savings may be limited by the rebound effects. One of the challenges in calculating the rebound effects is the  decomposition of the rebound effects to the direct rebound effects and the rebound effects across the economy so that the effect of increasing efficiency can be distinguished directly and taking into account all market adaptations. The purpose of this paper is to provide a theoretical model for the analysis of rebound effects and its calculation in different activities using the general equilibrium model. Based on the results of the modeling and using the data of the Social Accounting Matrix in 2011, the direct rebound effect by 1% increasing the efficiency of electricity and fossil fuels is 90.1% and 72.8%, respectively. The economy  wide effect are not much different from the direct effect as households do not react much to the increase in efficiency in this sector due to the low share of energy costs from household expenditures. Is. The high rebound effect observed in the Iranian economy will limit the effectiveness of the policy of increasing efficiency on reducing energy consumption.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Energy efficiency
  • decomposition of rebound effects
  • Computable General Equilibrium Model
  • electricity and fossil fuels
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