تأثیر آستانه‌ای رشد نرخ ‌ارز بر کارایی بخش صنعت در ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دکتری اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اجتماعی دانشگاه بوعلی‌سینا، همدان، ایران

2 استاد گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اجتماعی و اقتصادی دانشگاه الزهرا، تهران، ایران

3 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصادی دانشگاه فردوسی، مشهد، ایران

10.29252/ecoj.10.4.1

چکیده

در این پژوهش نقش آستانه‌ای رشد نرخ ارز  بر کارایی بخش صنعت در اقتصاد ایران در دوره زمانی 1395-1384 با استفاده از الگوی رگرسیون آستانه‌ای داده‌های تابلویی بررسی شده است. در این مطالعه جهت استخراج کارایی صنایع منتخب بر اساس طبقه‌بندی مرکز آمار ایران از صنایع از رویکرد تحلیل پوششی داده بوت استرپ استفاده شده است. نتایج پژوهش وجود یک آستانه برای رشد نرخ ارز  را نشان می‌دهد و مقدار آستانه رشد نرخ ارز  13/44 درصد است و با توجه به وابستگی شدید بخش صنعت در اقتصاد ایران به واردات، در رشد کمتر از آن تأثیر رشد نرخ ارز  بر کارایی صنعت مثبت و معنادار و در رشد نرخ ارز بیشتر از حد آستانه بدلیل غالب شدن افزایش بهای تمام شده محصولات، تأثیر منفی و معنادار خواهد داشت. همچنین رشد توسعه مالی مبتنی بر شبکه بانکی و رشد تسهیلات غیرجاری تأثیر منفی و معنادار بر کارایی صنایع مختلف کشور در دوره مورد بررسی دارند. نتایج نشان می‌دهد مدیریت نرخ ارز در کشور بایستی به‌گونه‌ای باشد که رشد نرخ ارز بیش از حد آستانه نباشد زیرا کارایی صنایع را کاهش می‌دهد و همچنین اعطای تسهیلات شبکه بانکی باید هدفمند و با نظارت مداوم صورت پذیرد تا میزان تسهیلات غیرجاری کمتری بدنبال داشته باشد و از سوی دیگر به بخش واقعی اقتصاد تزریق گردد تا در صورت رشد نرخ ارز بیش از حد آستانه انگیزه سفته‌بازی برای متقاضیان تسهیلات شکل نگیرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Impact of Exchange Rate Growth Threshold on the Efficiency of Industrial Sector in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Leila Argha 1
  • Abolfazl Shahabadi 2
  • Soheil Roudari 3
1 Ph.D in Economics, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamedan, Iran
2 Professor of Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences and Economics, Alzahra University, Tehran, Iran
3 Ph.D Candidate in Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Ferdowsi University, Mashhad, Iran
چکیده [English]

In this study, the role of  exchange rate growth threshold on the efficiency of the industrial sector on Iran during 2005-2016 was investigated using panel data threshold regression model. Also, Data envelopment analysis Bootstrap approach was used to extract the efficiency of selected industries based on the classification of Iran Statistics Center. The results show that industry sector efficiency is achievable at the exchange rate growth lower than 44.13% threshold. Since, the industrial production is highly related to the import prices, the lower growth rates of exchange rate may result in positive and significant effects on efficiency and the higher ones may affect it negatively. Also, the study shows that the growth of financial sector measured based on the growth of banking sector and non-performing loans have a significant and negative impact on the efficiency of various industries. These results suggest that the exchange rate growth should be monitored regularly and be kept below the threshold; and the financial credit expansion should be supervised regularly and purposefully so that the non-performing loans volume would be in control, and finally to reduce the speculative incentives in the times of exchange rate  growth above the threshold, financial credits should be channelize to target the real sector economy.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Exchange Rate Growth Threshold
  • Nonperforming Loans
  • Industrial Efficiency

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