اثر پیچیدگی اقتصادی بر نرخ ارز در کشورهای درحال توسعه منتخب دانش محور

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اجتماعی و اقتصادی دانشگاه الزهرا، تهران، ایران

2 پژوهشگر پسادکتری گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اجتماعی و اقتصادی دانشگاه الزهرا، تهران، ایران

3 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اجتماعی و اقتصادی دانشگاه الزهرا، تهران، ایران

چکیده

با توجه به حرکت روزافزون اقتصاد جهانی به سوی اقتصاد دانش محور، بررسی اثر پیچیدگی اقتصادی بر سایر متغیرهای اقتصادی ضروری و مهم به نظر می‌رسد. در این مطالعه از پیچیدگی اقتصادی به عنوان یکی از مهمترین مؤلفه‌های اقتصاد دانش بنیان استفاده شده است. بهبود این شاخص می‌تواند با افزایش قابلیت‌های فناورانه کشورها در تولید محصولات بر میزان تقاضای آن‌ها در فضای بین‌الملل اثر بگذارد و از این طریق نرخ ارز را دچار تغییر کند. با توجه به اهمیت نرخ ارز و اثر پیچیدگی اقتصادی بر تجارت، پژوهش حاضر با رویکرد داده‌های تابلویی و روش گشتاورهای تعمیم‌یافته سیستمی دومرحله‌ای به بررسی اثر پیچیدگی اقتصادی بر نرخ ارز در کشورهای درحال‌توسعه منتخب دانش محور طی دوره 2019-2007 پرداخته است. نتایج نشان می‌دهد پیچیدگی اقتصادی تأثیر منفی و معناداری بر نرخ ارز داشته است. به‌علاوه، تأثیر سایر متغیرهای توضیحی بکارگرفته شده در این تحقیق از جمله عرضه پول بر نرخ ارز مثبت و معنادار و ترازتجاری و ثبات سیاسی بر نرخ ارز منفی و معنادار بوده است . بنابراین توصیه می‌شود با افزایش ارتباط فعالیت‌های اقتصادی و زنجیره‌های تولیدی با یکدیگر در مسیر افزایش پیچیدگی گام برداشته شود تا بتوان از طریق افزایش قدرت رقابت پذیری در بازار جهانی، به سمت حفظ ارزش پول ملی حرکت کرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Effect of Economic Complexity on Exchange Rate in Selected Knowledge Based Developing Countries

نویسندگان [English]

  • Abolfazl Shahabadi 1
  • Vahid Omidi 2
  • Narges Alikaramzadeh 3
1 Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Social Science, Alzahra University, Tehran, Iran
2 Postdoctoral Researcher in Economics, Faculty of Economics and Social Science, Alzahra University, Tehran, Iran
3 MA Student in Economics, Faculty of Economics and Social Science, Alzahra University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

The exchange rate refers to the ratio of prices in two countries and its deviation from the balanced rate causes instability in macroeconomic variables such as Import, Export, price level, and financial markets. Also, regarding the increasing pace of the global economy toward a knowledge-based economy, it seems important to study the effect of the economic complexity on other economic variables. In this study, economic complexity, which indicates the degree of diversity and ubiquity of countries' products, has been used as one of the most important components of the knowledge-based economy. it is clear that more economic complexity leads to more competitive ability in the global market and, as a consequence, will lower the exchange rate. The present study has investigated the impact of Economic Complexity on exchange rates in selected developing knowledge-based countries during 2007-2019 using GMM. The results show that Economic Complexity had a negative and significant effect on the exchange rate. In addition, other control variables like money supply had a positive effect, and trade balance and political stability had a negative impact on the exchange rate. Therefore, governments' policies should lead to more economic complexity.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Exchange Rate
  • Economic Complexity
  • Trade Balance
  • Political Stability

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